Long Trade 08/14/13

3 months ago, we were shorting this one (and somehow didn't make money!).  I ended up adding it to my Conservative Growth/Balanced model portfolio and have a one-year target of 67.  The stock, which has split recently 3:1, has had a nice correction but is in a bullish trend. I see a little pause here in Financials plus some recent concern about rising interest rates and weakness in emerging markets as all contributing to some pressure on the stock.  This trade, which targets 53 by 8/28 with an intended downside of 47.50, is right at the 4:1 reward-to-risk I like to play.

We have a nice pullback from the extreme (an all-time high) in May, which coincided with the market's interim top.  Fund managers like BEN should move with the market, but it has been stuck near the longer-term moving average.  Pressure on emerging markets, where they excel, was an issue, as was concern about rising rates and bond-fund redemptions.  The last quarter was great - things are fine here fundamentally.  Technically, the support of 47.50 is rather obvious in the chart and is in the middle of the recent range.  The target of 53 would get us back to the break-down level in late May.

On the 5-day, we see some support at 48 that could be a good low.  I liked the bounce at 48.50 - high volume there a few days ago.  I wanted to pull the trigger right there but was waiting to hit the bid on ANV first (which worked out great!).

On the intraday, I like the high volume that came in on the bounce off of 48.50 - hopefully that was the day's low.  

Posted to The Analytical Trader on Aug 14, 2013 — 11:08 AM
Comments ({[comments.length]})
Sort By:
Loading Comments
No comments. Break the ice and be the first!
Error loading comments Click here to retry
No comments found matching this filter
Want to add a comment? Take me to the new comment box!