Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, XME, XLE, FDN

Even though energy stocks fell sharply last week, the overall market made new highs again! Tech stocks continued to be strong, along with the financials.

For the week, the Dow was up +18.18 points; SPX added +4.06 points; Nasdaq jumped +78.66 points. Both gold and oil turned back down sharply, with gold trading just above $1150/ounce and oil trading below $65/barrel! At the time of this writing, Asian opened the new week mixed. China and Japan were still looking strong! Here's how the US markets looked after Friday's close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX slipped 5.27 points to close at 2067.56. Its MACD stayed flat.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq, however, added +4.31 points to close at 4791.63. Its daily MAs and MACD were up.

Nasdaq does look stronger than SPX, as it seems to be riding its upper BB up higher. SPX almost broke out, but, was held back, in parts, by the energy stocks. For the new week, we might just get more of the same, ie. strong tech stocks. According to the latest estimates, online shopping over the 4-day Thanksgiving weekend was higher than last year. Coming from some of the bellwether retailers, including WMT, TGT, and IBM, online sales over Thanksgiving were producing record numbers! Unless SPX falls under 2050, there's really not much to worry about. On the other hand, if Nasdaq continues to push higher, we could see 5,000 challenged before the year-end! Most sectors are still very strong, despite the weakness in commodities.

Sector Watch

FAS (financials)

It's been a very good year for the banks. FAS broke out back at the beginning of 2013 and it has not stopped rising! WFC is still the strongest of the banks. V and MA made new highs last week!

XME (metals and mining)

XME also fell on Friday, gold, silver, and the miners.  CAT, CMI, and JOY also took a beating.  If you're looking for downside trades, take a look at CLF and CNX, which held up well on Friday.  RS may also have more to fall.

XLE (energy)

XLE took a huge tumble. We'll need to watch the support at 80 and 78. XLE closed just below 80. CVX, XOM, EOG, APA, APC, NOV, OXY, HES... just about every single energy (and energy-related) stock went down hard last week! The support at 78 is very important. Otherwise, it will probably test 75.

FDN (internet)

It's the season for certain internet stocks to shine! Consumers are doing more and more of their shopping online. So besides AMZN (whose name should be synonymous to online shopping) and GOOG (for search), we should pay attention to GRPN, BBY, and all the other retailers mentioned in this article above. Even the "brick-and-mortar" retailers are focusing and doing well on their online efforts!

One word of caution though, VIX popped up on Friday, surprisingly, as SPX opened higher. But, as mentioned above, as long as SPX stays above 2050, I think we can still pick strong sectors to play on the long side.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Happy Trades on Dec 01, 2014 — 12:12 AM
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