Preparing for the Week of May 18

Market Outlook

Last week we saw the repeat of the now-familiar price action: the market was weak in the early going and then rallied to finish the week strong.

The biggest difference was that, for the first time this year, the S&P 500 was able to cross and close the week above the 2120 level. This is a significant technical development in my opinion and signals that the market could be starting a broader move higher.

For the record, the rising bearish wedge I have been droning on about for months is still intact and the S&P price is still under the lower trendline.

However, after repeatedly trying and then failing to make a serious dent in the current uptrend, the bears seem to have become exhausted last week and ready to throw in the towel.

Consequently, the S&P price structure has morphed into what now looks like an ascending triangle, a bullish pattern. Depending on how you visualize and draw the triangle you can arrive at a range of bullish scenarios. Below is possibly the most bullish one (I tweeted about it yesterday).

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Enjoy your Sunday.

Posted to Tactical Alpha on May 17, 2015 — 11:05 AM

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