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SPY had a crazy rollercoaster ride last week reacting to oil prices, Russia, FOMC and Europe catalysts. The ex-dividend on Friday made things even trickier along with the S&P rebalancing and there was a mistick in the 212s on Thursday that apparently was still left on the charts.

Key fibs this week 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94. The daily 15 period ma sits at 204.68 as stochastics crossed back up. The weekly 5 period ma sits at 205.85 while the stochastics are stilled. There still lies a possibility of reversion back to retest the daily 15 period ma and even the daily 5 period ma in normal situatilns but things can get extreme due to seasonality and thin liquidity.

Friday’s last hour rally got muffled out as sellers were able to come in and stuff the 107s to erode to mid 106s closing the day out slightly green after the ex-dividend. Everyone is expecting markets to float higher from here into the year-end due to seasonality. This is a high probability but can’t rule out any unexpected contasion concerns to creep up to spoil the party. 

<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the mov e once the SPY reverses.

EXAS Short – EXAS weekly and monthly stochastics crossed down as the daily make or break sets up a mini inverse pup. Shorts trigger at 28 on reversion coils or a break through 25.91 with a .90 trail stop for the 24.60s daily 50 period ma target and 23.02 monthly 5 period ma.

ORCL Short – This one has been on a squeeze since earnings. The daily upper bbs have caught up to 45.62 and weekly at 42.34. Shorts trigger only on a break back under the daily lower bbs and stinky 2.50s area at 45.38 for an exhaustion back to the 44.73-44.43 range and daily 5 period ma at 43.35-42.90 area.

TWTR Long – TWTR trying to get the daily stochastics to cross back up, will need to break through and hold above 37.41. Longs trigger above the 37.62 with a 37.14 trail stop for a tightening towards the weekly 5 period m a at 38.60-38.80 and secondary taregst at 39.30-39.60-40

AMD Long – AMD weekly has crossed up with daily mini pup, It will need to break the weekly 5pd ma before taking a long. Long triggers at 2.69 with would also trigger a weekly MSL. Use 2.35 as a trail stop for tightening towards th 3.05-3.20 area.

BBBY Long – BBBY has a daily mini pup with 73.27 support and upper bbs at 74.55. The weekly has a pup breakout attempts with 72.75 as 5 period ma supports. The daily MSH triggers under 73.04. Longs trigger on pullbacks to 73.15-72.90 area with a 72.69 trail stop for daily upper bbs at 74.50s tgt. Rather than catch a falling knife on reversion, you can wait for BBBY to complete its down oscillation and reenter when the bumpers re-trigger.

HAS reversion Long – HAS (and MAT) got sold off hard on Friday on analyst comments. The daily lower bbs sit at 54.29 and monthly 15 period ma sits at 54.09 and monthly 15pd ma. Reversion longs can be taken around 54.30-54.07 area with a 53.84 trail.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

CMI – Daily 50 period ma at 141.20

SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05

FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs

GPRO- 90.48, 83.50, 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50

BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs

YHOO- 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 111.32, 109.39, 107.17, 104.59, 103.17, 101.92, 101.04, 99.29, 98.69, 98.08- key fibs.

FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs 

Earnigs Reports This Week:

Mon: postmarket: SCS

Tues: premarket: WAG: postmarket: CALM, CAMP, HGR

Wed: premarket: SD

This should be a light volume week as traders take off for the holidays. Play lightly and take it easy. Earnings season is around the corner.  Happy holidays all! - J