Weekly Notes for Jan 12th-16th, 2015

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SPY made a bounce off the lows for a MSL trigger above 202.72 and gapped to peak at 206.42, just shy of the 206.58 fib before a reversion to the 203.50 fib. The daily 15/50 period moving averages sits at 205.73 and 204.61. The stochastics have made an initial cross/kiss for a make or break this week as earnings season kicks off. The weekly 5pd ma sits at 205.10 and monthly 5 period sits at 203.13.

Key fibs and market structure levels on the SPY are at 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 206.58, 205.88- swing high, 204.94, 204.72, 204.24, 203.50, 202.73- MSL gap fill, 201.94, 198.86 low.

Earnings season officially kicks off this week with AA and goes heavy for the next 5 weeks. Our main focus will be on the individual earnings gappers/dumpers. SPY could be an early cross up or a mini inverse pup with a wide fractal range at 206.60 to 202.60 is the range. 

<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the mov e once the SPY reverses.

CDK Long – CDK trying to form a daily consolidation breakout as the daily stochastic cross up. Longs trigger on a 41.85 break for upside target 43s with a trail at 40.33.

HIMX Long – HIMX forming a consolidation breakout. Longs trigger on pullbacks to 7.95 for with a 7.69 trail for the 8.35-8.50 daily upper bbs.

GILD Short – GILD has a fib resistance at 105.58. The daily 50 period ma sits at 102.33. Shorts trigger on bounces back to the 105.30-105.60s for a tightening back to the dialy 50 period ma 102.60-102.30 range initial targets.

ADM Short – ADM trying to form a daily mini inverse pup under the 49.50 daily 50 period ma. Shorts trigger on reversions to the 49.20-49.40 with a 49.78 trail stop for a mini inverse pup towards the 47.50s-47 daily lower bbs.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05

FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs

GPRO- 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50

BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs

YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 117.20, 111.32, 109.39, 107.17, 104.59, 103.17, 101.92, 101.04, 99.29, 98.69, 98.08- key fibs.

FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs 

Earnings Reports This Week:

Mon: premarket: SNX, AA, LMNR

Tues: premarket: HIS, KBH: postmarket: CSX, LLTC, DRWI, PRGS

Wes: premarket: JPM, NORD, WFC: postmarket: GEF, CLC, FUL, HGR

Thurs: premarket: LEN, FAST, C, BAC, NLK, PPG, TSM: MTB: postmarket: INTC, OZRK, PRCT, SLBD,WTFC, MBFI

Fri: pretmarket: PNC, SCHW, GSM, CMA, STI

Earnings season kicks off light this week with the banks and financials. Pace carefully as the volume starts to come back into the market. The SPY daily make or break will try to resolve this week. - J  

Posted to Morning Profit Maker on Jan 11, 2015 — 8:01 PM
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