Weekly Notes for Jan 20th-23rd, 2015

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SPY had a rollercoaster week as the daily inverse pup turned mini inverse pup to sell-off hard Thursday night with futures down – 17 at one point before recovering by opening bell and jamming Friday afternoon to mark a bullish engulfing close just above the daily 5 period ma at 201.24. The daily stochastics are still down but stalled unless the 5 period ma breaks. The daily 15 period m sits at 203.73 and 50 period ma at 204.76.

Key fibs and market structure levels on the SPY are at 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 206.58, 205.88- swing high, 204.94, 204.72, 204.24, 203.50, 202.73- MSL gap fill, 201.94, 198.61 fib, 196.58

USO (Oil ETF) bounced this week but will need to hold above daily market structure low trigger at 18.50 in order to sustain the recovery. Various REITS (real estate investment trusts) have been hitting 52 wee and all time highs (SPG,HCP, HPT, NNN).

 <> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.

MU Long – MU tested the daily lower bbs to form a daily hammer attempt. The 28.27 is a strong fib area to watch if it sells off for longs

MOS Long – MOS has a monthly mini pup with 45.22 as the 5 period ma support.and 5 period ma break at 45.94. Longs trigger either on a break through the 45.15 area or a pullback to the 44.32 area with upper bbs at 46.80 target with a -.56 trail stop.

LVS Short - LVS is forming a daily mini inverse pup under the 5 period ma at 55. Shorts trigger when 60 min stochastic peak and slip back down through 54.72 with a 55.23 trail stop for 53.70-43.40 targets. 55.17 is a super fib to watch early. Longs trigger above 55.42 with a trail at super fib.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

LVS – 55.18 super fib

SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05

FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs

GPRO- 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50

BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs

YHOO- 53.85, 50.77, 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 117.20, 111.32, 109.39, 107.17, 104.59, 103.17, 101.92, 101.04, 99.29, 98.69, 98.08- key fibs.

FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs

 Earnings Reports This Week:

Tues: premarket: JNJ, OMNIGTE, MS, DAL, SAP, ATI, RF, EDU: postmarket: ADTN, NFLX, AMD, IBM, CLS, CREE, FULT, SMCI, CA

Wed: premarket: ASML, UNH, NTRS, AMTD, VIVO, USB: postmarket: EBAY, ACP, NAVI, URI, SNDK, XLNX, LOGI, FFIV, SLM

Thurs: premarket: JBHT, KEY,CY, BBT, NTCT, TZOO, VZ, PACW, LUV, ORI, UAL, UNP, JCI, COV: postmarket: COF< ISRG, ETFC, INFN, EGHT, PLCM, ALTR, KLAC, MXIM, RMD, DGII, SBUX, SWKS, DHT

Friday: premarket: GE, HON, KSU, MCD, COL, STT

Daily SPY could mini inverse pup if it rejects back down through 201 or bounce if it holds above 201.94 fib. Although a holiday shortened week, earnings season rolls full steam ahead. Greek elections and ECB QE program (rate decision on 1/22) could be outlier catalysts this week that could whipsaw the markets so pace and allocate properly. - J 

Posted to Morning Profit Maker on Jan 19, 2015 — 1:01 AM
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