The First Trade... Don't sleep, you'll miss it.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...

Tuesday morning's 2070.50 bias-down signal was invalidated, but its recovery peaked upon filling the gap back to Monday's 2076.25 futures close. Exiting the bias environment back under 2070.50 negated the invalidation, eventually sliding to test 2060.25 support. The next lower objective at 2057.50 was tested into the futures close.

Overnight action's new info...
Narrow ranging held 2060.25 as resistance into Asian markets' opens. Suddenly, "positive" news sent them diving, taking S&Ps down to 2033.50 in just over an hour. It was a tough slug, but the entire drop was recovered to retest 2060.25. Its reaction down to 2051.25 is trying to recover 2054.50.

If, then...
Tuesday's late break came moments too late to justify hold-short, unless planning to cover overnight, because "extending down overnight remains possible to recover before Wednesday's open." My 2054.50 objective was probed by 22 points, but that doesn't alter my pattern for reversing positive into Wednesday's open.

Not opening positive would keep alive potential for repeating the overnight drop, albeit not as steeply, and not necessarily all the way back down. Opening positive must still extend, and would be likely to extend, optimally to close above yesterday's 2076.25 high. In-line with the bigger picture we discussed during this weekend's Saturday Review (see lower image, basis SPX), closing positive would all but ensure extending to new highs before the next credible downleg.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2057.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2054.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2068.00-2068.75 would be likely to trigger the 2064.00 bias-up signal.

Posted to Rod David's Futures Market … on Apr 01, 2015 — 7:04 AM
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