Post-Fed Look at the S&P e-Minis

Either:

  • The minis pull back a 61.8% retrace of the rally that started at 1983 and lasted til the peak today - which would take prices down to 2015 - 2016; or,
  • They only pull them back to 2048, 2036 or 2026 and then run to new highs.

If it's the former, the resistance would be 2095 - 2097 and the technical set up would be super-bearish for 2016.

If it's the latter, the technical set up isn't quite as bearish yet and new highs will be hit before we can start thinking sizable pullback again.

We'd have day trading hedges on if you can enter near today's highs and look to cover 1/3 at 2048, 1/3 at 2036 and 1/3 at 2016 (that last third on a swing trading basis).

We wouldn't be short heavy / aggressively until the 2096 level is re-tested after the initial pullback to 2016 (the target in my opinion right now). If 2016 isn't tested on the downside on a pullback, we wouldn't mess with shorts until 2150.

We honestly don't know for sure which of the two is playing out. I do feel strongly that we'll retrace some of the rally off of 1983, though.

Posted to Peak Analytics' Direction... on Dec 16, 2015 — 5:12 PM

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