Week 11 RECAP

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility. You are recommended to make appropriate inquiries and seek appropriate advise before sending money, incurring any expenses, acting on recommendations or entering into any commitment in relation to any reference published here. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


LOOKING AT THE WEEK BEHIND 1 DAY @ A TIME…..

Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It's your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.

Markets

  • YM, ES, NQ (RTH), CL, GC, 6E, 6J

*Results will vary for each individual trader based on market entry/exit and/or live versus simulated environment.


TREND Charts of the Week

Looking for the chart of the day means looking for what I call the Golden Setup or simply which chart had the highest probability of price action running in TREND. Whether it ran 20 or 100 ticks, it's the patience to wait for that setup and trust the entry. This is what I strive each day in the market to wait for in each of my setups.

highest-probability-setup

  • Great examples below of how with ALL charts in sync and price action with the 50/144ema cloud, a higher probability of momentum following through in TREND

Daily Recap/Outlook Videos:

Recap reflective of highest probability setups based on price action crossover of T3-50 and 50/144ema cloud with 1 of 4 possible trade management setups and exit strategies. Market order entries/exit will vary whether simulated or live for each trader. All setups are called out on real time charts in a screenshare room and randomly posted online.

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Week 11 Outlook

the-big-picture-2

Pullback Indeed!

Hoping for some pullback through the weeks, week 10 delivered as stated in last week's outlook, "key events ahead may be just the catalyst that we need to pull back and correct the market to its nearest open gaps." Open gaps may not be the end all to a pullback but surely a level to watch as market is trending down on any given day as we have plenty more to come downside. The market surely has delivered some moments of economic uncertainty and just when you thought that may be the catalyst needed to pullback, no such luck.

Luck brought us reprieve but short lived once again, at least on the NQ as price action rose just shy of all time highs on Friday. The ES and YM futures were not so lucky as they close out under their perspective weekly opens. Heads up on the divergence into week 11.

With week 10 behind us and the ever looming non-farm payrolls data out as of last Friday, we remain in a pattern of uncertainty once again as the FOMC announcement approaches. Indices continue to remain on the higher time frame Murray Levels upside in what continues to be an ongoing uptrend holding above each indices perspective 50/144 ema and key moving averages (10, 50, 200). For no other reason than the fact that markets remain upside, even with the pullback above the well monitored moving averages, keeps my perspective for the short term in the same direction. Once price action pulls back on the 4 hour chart under key noted levels in Week 11's outlook video, I will default to the daily chart and watch for any price action closing in on daily gaps and moving averages. Upside action definitely has room to move as the YM and ES may revisit and retest the all time highs achieved most recently. If able, monitor the Globex session/London open to get the early entries on what may be a trending session on any given day.

Interesting perspective on the VIX as it has remained below 20 for 121 straight days. A streak not seen since 2011. So are things that great? Who am I to question? As a technical trader, I simply resort to my charts to be ready for both directions and use the Heikin Ashi bars in trend as my indicator.

Looking ahead to week 11, VIX levels remain low and perhaps adding to its already growing number of days below 20 will keep this market afloat and above it's perspective moving averages, both on a daily and range charts. Key events in the market this week include FOMC and a heavy duty Wednesday on the economic front. This week also is are quarterly Quad Witching event and all eyes on the SPX 2400 strike calls Open Interest mid month as we may see the ES retesting the upper levels.

Watch those daily/weekly and monthly VWAP for support and resistance both intraday and the higher time frames.

the-bottom-line

FOMC is the event to watch. Until then, TREND remains upside as the dips continue to be bought with considerable momentum back upside.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS at this point to lead us higher on the indices on the bigger pic in my opinion if all things remain constant and nothing occurs to "shake things up" downside. It won't take much! Watch for the break of the daily 10ma downside or revisiting the all time highs in the opposite direction. Early signs of market weakness has started to sign.

Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing which is approaching and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. Placing a 250 sma/VWAP on your daily/longer term range charts can be one useful indicator before institutional support and taking in more profit.

Outlook Video: ----------------------------------------------

Monday

Chart of the Day

------------------------

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Small pockets of trend with deeper pullbacks if you played in the sandbox today
      • NQ reaches all time high but unable to break upside
      • Low Volume/Pre-FOMC
      • Balanced profile
      • Range Bound
    • VIX closes out @ 11.35 (DOWN)
    • Core Sector List: 19 GREEN; 6 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • INTC acquires Mobileye
  • News
    • Japanese Navy sends largest ship into China Sea
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Drop to the lower time frame for pockets of opportunity
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: CHOP/ Late Session Lift

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Tuesday

Chart of the Day

------------------------

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Continued globex sell off, find lows and back upside to weekly VWAP's
      • 10 Handle rule off the lows for ES just shy of target.
      • NQ/YM closing out at today's open; ES 3 points down
      • AD lines off the lows today
    • Crude slight recover ahead of EIA
    • Gold/Euro sell off after AM session chop
    • VIX closes out @ 12.30 (UP)
    • Core Sector List: 10 GREEN; 15 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • PPI: Wholesale inflation rises
  • News
    • Saudis said not to be raising supply to Int'l Oil market
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Reset on MML on ES/NQ hold up off lows after retest
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWNTREND
    • US Session: DOWNTREND Pullback

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Wednesday

Chart of the Day

------------------------

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Am session unable to maintain Globex momentum. NQ pulls back
      • Pre-FOMC runup; NQ to all time highs
      • AM pullback to Euro close; Mid Session lift and rally up to ATH on NQ
    • Gold/Yen/Euro rally as well
    • BONDS rally!?
    • VIX closes out @ 11.63 (DOWN)
    • Core Sector List: 24 GREEN; 1 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • CPI: small inflation gain; in line with feds goal
    • Crude: Draw
    • Retail Sales: Rose modestly; in line
    • Divergence in the News reporting on data
    • FOMC: Hikes .25%
    • Yellen: No decsiion yet on balance sheet
  • News
    • POTUS TRUMP 2005 Tax
    • Alleged Russian spy's hacked Yahoo
    • German finance ministry bomb detected
    • Tap at Trump tower not likely
    • Dutch voters head to polls
    • 1 Trillion dollar Infrastructure package proposed
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: UPTREND
    • US Session: UPTREND

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Thursday

Chart of the Day

------------------------

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Globex follow through with pre-market pullback
      • AM session downtrend with long candle tails
      • Mid session/PM session chop
    • Globex Gold Trend upside
    • VIX closes out @ 11.21 (Down)
    • Core Sector List: 6 GREEN; 19 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Jobless claims: Good Number
    • Housing Starts: Favorable
    • Philly Fed: Good Number
    • JOLTS: Up
  • News
    • WH confident that wiretap will be revealed
    • Dutch elections "snub" the right
    • WH budget released
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: UPTREND
    • US Session: DOWNTREND

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Friday

Chart of the Day

------------------------

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • QUAD Witching
      • Low volume, grinding market price action
      • Balanced Profile/Range Bound
    • YEN trending chart for the session
    • VIX closes out @ 11.28 (UP)
    • Core Sector List: 8 GREEN; 17 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Industrial Production: Improving
    • Consumer sentiment: Edging Up
    • SNAP drops under 20
    • 1.3 billion shares of APPL sold
  • News
    • German PM Merkel meets with POTUS Trump/Press Conference
    • Fed's Kashkari: Rase rates only after balance sheet plan market reaction
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: CHOP DOWN


Recommended Viewing for March

  • Rated 5 star book on AMAZON on Trading Psychology

trade-mindfully

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Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

Posted to Trading-the-Trend (@Tradi... on Mar 18, 2017 — 1:03 PM
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