$SNAP - The new $FB or the next $TWTR-like fail?

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So is Snapchat (Nasdaq: SNAP) the next Facebook (+360% since IPO) or the next Twitter (-80% since its IPO)? I'm not sure, and only time will tell. But for the very near term, shares of SNAP look to be putting in a constructive bottom after trading below $18 (-25% below its opening day price) briefly following a very disappointing earnings report. The massive volume flush below $18 should help to mark that level as strong support going forward. $20 was formerly support, so now that shares are trading above that level -- 20.44 as of this writing -- we should see that level hold as intermediate support.

The company has a number of bullish factors going for it. Sales in the most recent quarter rose 285% over the previous quarter, to $515M annual revenues. The company has no debt, is seeing an increase in fund buying (more on that below) to the tune of 158% increase in recent weeks, and at only 25% institutional ownership, there is plenty of more room for the big players to get on board. The company has $3B in cash on hand and is projected to be profitable in 2019. Oppenheimer recently upgraded the company to Outperform from Perform.

As for funds buying shares of SNAP, check this out. From recent 13F filings, George Soros, Dan Loeb and Jake Tepper all purchased new positions in SNAP in recent trade.

There are plenty of negatives. Tons of competition from the likes of Facebook, Instagram and Twitter, and other social media sites all vying for the same ad dollars. Without earnings, valuation is a guessing game. And can SNAP find other ways to monetize besides ads?

But for now, buying shares of SNAP pretty close to where it originally IPO'd may be one of the best plays in the market right now.


Posted to Dr. Stoxx Options Letter on May 16, 2017 — 12:05 PM

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