Observations: (This is very similar to the SLV write that I just did.)
- Looks like the markets decided last October that the GLD double top is THE sell signal for 2013. Since then the chart looks terrible as it sold almost straight down.
- Gold is strongly affected by too many outside variables like currency moves. But most notably the GLD is tightly held by only a few hands controlling a large enough portion to cause HUGE moves that are independent of fundamentals.
- Technically, it is currently trading below a lot of its moving averages.
- Every run up gets met with a selloff and we just had a small run up. Will it sell off again? Since I have no reason to believe that the recent July rebound will continue, I am inclined to avoid gold at this time. There are better risks to take.
- The 5 year chart shows that every bounce level was breached. Why should the next one hold? Bernanke's influence this year has proven too influential on all markets and Gold may get hit hard on the back of mere statements. Evidence is the $20 two day move in April of this year.
Conclusion: going long GLD now carries too much uncertainty and like SLV would be broadly based on 'Hopium.'
|CHART 1: 5 year chart for perspective|
|CHART 2: 1year chart looks terrible|