Note: this is the trade that was headlined on MarketWatch.com yesterday, and which I mentioned in last night's webcast. It has FAR more risk than the story described, and
I would never recommend this kind of trade due to its huge risk. This is using yesterday's numbers. But here it is so you can see it:
Stock: VIX trading at $15.77
Outlook: Expecting big move over next two weeks
Reason: Since this isn't my trade, I can't speculate as to reason, other than to say a huge pop in the VIX is expected.
VIX Daily Chart. The grey rectangle represents the loss zone for this trade. See more below.
Volatility: The volatility of the VIX options is pretty high. But with only two weeks to expiration, option volatility isn't really the concern here.
The Trade: - Sell to open 1 September 17 call, and
- Buy to open 8 September 27 calls,
- As a long ratio call spread
- For a debit of $0.02.
- Max risk = $10.02. As traded yesterday with the ratio of selling 25,000 of the 17 calls, and buying 200,000 of the 27 calls, this trade actually risks $25 million in addition to the "debit" of $50,000.
- Break even points: below $16.98; above $28.43; max loss is at $27
- Max reward is huge and theoretically unlimited
Trade Plan:
Loss exit: Since this isn't my trade, I don't have a loss exit. But as a general rule, close the trade if it losses 50% of the risk.
Profit exit: Again, not my trade. Taking profits at 100% of the risk is a general rule.
Notes/Adjustments: None.
Trade safe!