ETF Outlook for the Week of March 17, 2014
iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (NYSE: EWJ)
The ETF closed at the lowest level since August as the value of the Yen continued to appreciate amid rising tensions in the Ukraine. Overnight the Nikkei Index opened lower by 0.5 percent after the Ukraine vote went in the direction that most had anticipated. From a technical perspective the ETF has support at $10.95 after closing at $11.04 last Friday. A close below support could be a significant breakdown for the ETF. However, if the Yen ends its short-term rally and continues the longer-term downtrend it could boost Japanese stocks and EWJ.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY)
The Ukraine vote went the way of Russia this weekend and it is not viewed as a positive for Western stocks. The U.S. futures were falling after the news mildly due to the fact that the odds were Crimea would vote to join Russia. Even though the news was priced in for the most part, it could deter investors from buying into the current pullback in the SPY. The ETF is 1.9 percent lower than the all-time closing higher set earlier this month and remains above the intraday low set two weeks ago when Russian troops initially entered Crimea. Support for the ETF will fall in the $183-$813.75 range early in the week and below that there is no significant support for a another few percentage points.
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Pharmaceutical Index ETF (NYSE: IHE)
The 3.5 percent pullback in IHE has been methodical and appears to be healthy and more than likely a buying opportunity for investors looking to enter the ETF on healthy weakness. There are three support levels for the ETF between $125 and $126.25 that includes price support, a gap, and the 50-day moving average. The low last week was $128.52 and it closed Friday at $129.66. The ETF may not fall into the support range and as has been the trend the last year, buyers have been stepping in before strong ETFs hit support. The same action may be taking place with IHE as investors look to buy on any pullback over 3 percent.
First Trust ISE Cloud Computing Index ETF (NYSE: SKYY)
The niche technology ETF pulled back 4.1 percent in January before rallying 10 percent to a new all-time high. The ETF is currently down 4.25 percent from its all-time high and sitting on the same support level (50-day moving average) as it did in January before the rally began. If history repeats itself, SKYY should be setting up for a rally this week that would take the ETF to a new highs in the $30-$30.50 range. The setup is a high reward-to-risk buying opportunity for investors that are willing to use a fairly tight stop-loss near the $27 area. The two largest holdings in the ETF are Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA) and F5 Networks (NASDAQ: FFIV).