No weekend update this week

Due to travel plans this past weekend, there was / is no full market report published.

Here are some quick thoughts on the topics we normally cover in the report:

  • S&P futures at 2034.75 have key "expanding flat" resistance at 2050.  Until that level is broken on a closing basis, the bears still have hope.
  • The NASDAQ e-Mini Futures at 4218 have their "expanding flat" resistance at 4240
  • Russell 2000 is looking better at 1173.79 this morning.  Before more upside takes place, some more consolidation / correction lower needs to play out.  Target entries for the bulls are 1161 (with stops in place on close below 1155) and 1118 (with stops in place on close below 1117).
  • Crude oil bounced and hit our "bounce target" at 76.24 on Friday.  Now, it's time to sell rips in black gold.  The first target for selling is 75.54 - 75.62.  Downside target is test of 73 - 73.25 area.
  • Gold is still working its way through an upside correction on the 60-minute chart.  We're thinking that 1198 - 1200 is where it will peak out.
  • The US Dollar has been consolidating its recent impressive gains and looks like it may be ready for another push to the upside (corresponding with Euro and Yen weakness).  Beware gold and crude oil bulls if that happens.  Also, favor small cap US if that scenario is to play out.
  • The yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note at 2.333% should soon start to work its way higher (leading to the afore-mentioned strength in the greenback) towards our target of 3.414%.  Worthy of a trade shorting the price of Treasuries or investment grade fixed income.
  • Our Sea Change long-term model has a current allocation of 66.67% long spread equally across US large caps, US mid caps, US small caps and US micro caps.  The EFA and EEM slices are still in cash.
  • No new buy signals are lurking in our Sea Change short-term / opportunistic indicator.  
  • Trades that could be implemented in the next few sessions include:
    • A long VIX play
    • Short of oil on a bounce
    • Short of gold when it finishes bouncing at 1198 - 1200 or so
    • Possibly long of biotech when they finish tumbling - until then, we're still short of BIIB in our hedge fund.

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Sea Change Capital Advisors, LLC

Posted to Peak Analytics' Direction F… on Nov 17, 2014 — 10:11 AM

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Excellent advice these last turbulent months...
Wide stop loss and small at profit taking but that's their style.
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