Weekly Notes for Dec 29th-Jan 2nd, 2014

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SPY continued to float higher last week towards new closing highs as the whipsaw recovery it saw the week before. With record setting fund inflows, the general direction of this market would appear to be north. The daily stochastics are still up as the daily 5 period moving average continues to rise to 207.59. A retest and bounce off the daily 5 period ma can fuel a daily mini pup towards the 209.74 fib and 212.67 fib and finally daily upper bbs at the 203.63.

Key fibs this week 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94. The daily shows a potential mini pup. This will be perhaps the lightest volume holiday week of the year so take it easy out there. When volume is this thin, markets can get extreme or choppy. 

<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the mov e once the SPY reverses.

GLW Long – Daily 5 period ma sits at 23. Longs trigger on pullbacks to 23-22.80 with a 23.74 trail stop for a final daily mini pup towards the daily upper bbs towards 23.90s.

BBBY Short – BBBY trading near daily upper bbs at 77.96. Shorts trigger at the 77.35-77.60 area for a reversion back towards the daily 5 period ma 75.50s and tightenined to the daily 15 period ma 73.50s with a trail stop at 78.06.

M Short – M recovered back to the daily upper bbs area last weak. Shorts trigger at the 64.90-65.10 area for a tightening back towards the 63.60s on the daily 5 period ma with a -.47 trail stop.

JNPR Short – JNPR forms a daily MSH trigger at 22.70 at the daily 5 period ma. Shorts trigger under 22.59 for a tightening back towards the 21.40s at the daily 50 period ma with a 23.02 trial stop.

BAS Short – BAS triggers shorts on the 7.35 break for a tightening to the daily 15 period ma at 6.55-6.35 area with a trail atop at the 7.76 area. Keep an eye on USO as well as it moved with oil prices.

AMD Long – AMD weekly has crossed up with daily mini pup, It will need to break the weekly 5pd ma before taking a long. Long triggers at 2.69 with would also trigger a weekly MSL. Use 2.35 as a trail stop for tightening towards the 3.05-3.20 area.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

CMI – Daily 50 period ma at 141.20

SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50, 201.94, 198.62, 195.81, 191.05

FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs

GPRO- 90.48, 83.50, 71.78, 63.54, 55.31, 43.50

BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs

YHOO- 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 111.32, 109.39, 107.17, 104.59, 103.17, 101.92, 101.04, 99.29, 98.69, 98.08- key fibs.

FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs 

Earnings Reports This Week:

None

No earnings plays this week gives an indication of how thin this week will be. Earnings season kicks off next week so take it light and easy this week as it will be a ghost town. SPY is at the daily upper trendline resistance where it had problems last time. The thinking is that market will float again this week but if that trendline becomes a problem and the daily 5 period ma cracks, then a peak could be put in. The 207.59-207.39 is support area and a bounce off there sets up a daily mini pup. - J

Posted to Morning Profit Maker on Dec 28, 2014 — 2:12 PM
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