Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: Greece, FAS, BTK, FDN, IGV

"Greece" once again dominated the news in the financial markets. Last week, things were already volatile. Nasdaq popped to a new all-time high on Monday and SPX tested 2130 again. But, as talks between Greece and its creditors dragged on, markets pulled back. Selling picked up some speed as we headed into the weekend. But, still, stocks held up pretty well on Friday.

We traded well last week and my Ecstatic Plays Portfolio is at a new all-time high. The portfolio is up +28.21% in the past 90 days and +37.87% for 2015! Here are the closed trades for the week:

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The big news this weekend was that Greece first announced a referendum to let its people vote on July 5 on the outcome of negotiations with its international creditors. Tonight, global financial markets are tumbling as Greece imposes capital controls and closes banks! At the time of this writing, Asian markets were down big, although China almost came all the way back to even momentarily!

For the week, the Dow was down 69.27 points; SPX slid 8.5 points; Nasdaq lost 36.49 points. Gold pulled back again to below $1180/ounce, while oil was little changed. Here are how US markets looked after Friday's close:


SPX slid 0.82 point to close at 2101.49. It closed just below its daily MAs. The MACD was down.


Nasdaq fell 31.68 to close at 5080.51. It closed right at its 30-day MA. The MACD also went lower.

Both SPX and Nasdaq showed a neutral stance at Friday's close, as investors waited to see what would happen in Greece over the weekend. Well, as mentioned above, Greece has imposed capital control and ordered banks to close for a week, although ATMs will remain open with a 60 euro daily limit on withdrawals. For the new week, the markets look to open on the downside. SPX's initial support is at 2080. Below 2080, there is support between 2060-2040. It's difficult to say how far the market will fall. A lot will depend on how well EU can contain the situation. Let's take a look at some major sectors:

Sector Watch

FAS (financial)

FAS closed above its 20- and 30-day MAs, although its MACD went lower. Big banks are holding up well. GS, JPM, WFC, BAC were all neutral on Friday. Same thing goes for the credit cards such as MA and V.

FDN (internet)

FDN managed to close above its daily MAs. But, if things pull back with the broader market, we could quickly see this sector turn bearish. FB has just had an amazing run. It could have a lot of room to pullback to (so, does TRIP). AMZN also still looks healthy. GOOG is neutral. PCLN is a bit weak.

BTK (biotech)

This sector has been among the strongest. But, if things pull back altogether, investors will likely take profits in biotechs. Some of the recent high-flyers include: BIIB, INCY, LLY, KITE, HRTX, CLVS, and BLUE.

IGV (software)

IGV closed just below its daily MAs. On Friday, cybersecurity stocks (which have been hot lately) pulled back. CYBR, FEYE, VDSI, PANW all pulled back quite a bit. These may get hit again on Monday morning, but, we should see some buyers come back in. Cloud space has also been hot. But, it may be the next target in a weak market environment. CRM and VMW both pulled back on Friday.
Good night and HappyTrading! ™
Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Jun 29, 2015 — 3:06 AM
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