Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

The S&P went from all time highs to below its 50-day MA in a day, before recovering to finish less than one percent from its highs. Breadth improved, and bullish sentiment sank to levels not seen since November. This is a bull market that few people believe in.

Here's the S&P on a daily and weekly:-

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The NASDAQ finished lower for the first time in 5 weeks.

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The Transports were weaker again, probing the lowest levels since November.

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The Russell closed beneath its 10-week MA, and has essentially been rangebound for several months now.

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No change on the long-term monthly chart of the S&P. This is a bull market.

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Here's breadth via the cumulative advance/decline on the NYSE:-

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Here's the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Most respondents are neutral or bearish. These levels are almost identical to those in November immediately before the post-election rally.

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Sector Rankings

Technology remains the strongest of the S&P Sector SPDRs, followed by Utilities, Staples, and Industrials, which are all above their 20, 50, and 200-day MAs.

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Then comes Consumer Discretionary which tested its 50-day, and Healthcare which broke below its 50-day but later recovered it. They're followed by Materials, Real Estate, and Financials which made a weak attempt at a bounce. Energy is still bottom of the pile, below its 50 and 200-day.

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Alpha Capture Portfolio

This week our model portfolio slipped -0.9% vs -0.4% for the S&P, ending a strong 4-week run of positive returns and outperformance. There was one exit signal during the week, but it remains long 11 names, with 6% cash, and total open risk of 9.7%.

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Watchlist

Technology and Consumer Discretionary have topped our list for many weeks, but there are now signs their dominance may be ending, with a lot ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

The S&P edged to fresh all time highs but finished modestly lower on the week. Technology, and Consumer Discretionary sectors continue to lead, despite the weakness in specific retailers. Breadth has deteriorated slightly, but bullish sentiment has declined too ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

The S&P and NASDAQ closed at all time highs Friday. The new high on the S&P took out the previous level from March 1st. Its most recent pullback was only 2.8%, briefly penetrating its 50-day MA before resuming ...

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Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

Equity indices are probing new highs on multiple timeframes. Breadth is improving. Bullish sentiment is at historical averages.

Here's the S&P on a daily, weekly, and monthly:-

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Here's the weekly charts of the Dow, Transports, NASDAQ, and ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

Equities recovered well this week led by gains in Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Technology. Energy slumped to six-month lows, and was joined to the downside by Healthcare. The leaders of the last few weeks - Utilities and Consumer Staples ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

Equity markets weakened further with the major indices finishing a holiday-shortened week at the lowest levels in 2 months. Longer term the uptrend remains intact, but near-term breadth has deteriorated, and sentiment is negative with measures such as the ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

It was an eventful week if you're into economic numbers, Fed watching, and geopolitics, but for the stuff that actually matters - price and its trend - it was deadly dull, with the major indices all finishing slightly lower on ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

Equities recovered this week with the NASDAQ leading the way and posting all time highs on a daily and weekly basis, but the other major indices remain mostly rangebound and just below their highs.

The S&P rebounded from a ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

A similar report to last week, because quite frankly not a lot changed. Short-term, the major indices have weakened further, but longer-term remain in strong uptrends. Defensive sectors are leading, along with technology.

The tumble on Tuesday that finally ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

Last week was a whole lot of noise for very little progress in either direction. Longer-term the uptrend in equities remains intact, but it's clearly mixed in the short-term for specific indices and sectors.

The S&P improved modestly ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

Equity indices are just shy of their highs, but breadth has deteriorated in the last week or so, with large caps significantly outperforming small caps, and leadership being concentrated in fewer names. While the indices appear close to their ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

The major indices all made new highs this week, with the S&P and NASDAQ recording their sixth straight high on a weekly close basis, along with the NYSE Composite and MidCap Index.

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I know there have been a slew ...

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