Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

Not much new this week. After a brief period of weakness equity markets recovered off their lows to finish at or near their highs.

The S&P finished near the top of its range of the last 5 days:-

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And that range itself was at the upper-end of its 10-day range:-

I believe that kind of price action to be fairly typical of consolidations within uptrends, and something that usually results in an eventual resumption higher, but obviously there's nothing to stop it from chopping around here a while longer.

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ moved to a new all time high close on both a daily and weekly close basis. Here's the weekly:-

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Sector Analysis

Tech is the clear leader, at new highs, and in turn leading the NASDAQ to its fresh highs this week.

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That's followed by a resurgent Consumer Discretionary sector, and the former leaders of Financials, Industrials, and Materials which continue to consolidate just below their highs. All are above their 20, 50, 200-day MAs.

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Next comes Energy which has continued its retracement to just above its 50-day MA, but remains in a strong uptrend longer-term.

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Bring up the rear are Healthcare, Utilities, Real Estate, and Staples which are all below their 200-day MA, and appear to be rangebound or worse on an intermediate-term basis.

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Alpha Capture Portfolio

Our model portfolio edged higher +0.2% on the week vs -0.1% for the S&P. That takes it to +1.3% YTD. Heading into next week there will be 12 open positions, around 20% cash, and open risk of just under 9%.

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Watchlist

Once again our list reflects the strongest areas of the market for our timeframe, with representation from tech, consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, and energy. That's been the case for many weeks ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended the week at all time highs on both a daily and weekly close basis. The Dow also closed at an all time high on a weekly basis, but finished just shy of the ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

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Here's ...

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Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

A bit of a nothing week with the major indices little changed. The only significance to the midweek Fed announcement was the amount of noise it generated. Price continues to tell the real story. We're in a new ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

Another big week with the major indices all up over 3% to all time highs, and the Dow posting closing records every day this week for the first time in over 17 years (April 1999, h/t @callieabost).

Turning ...

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Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

Every now and then it's good to take a look at longer-term charts to help give you perspective for the moves unfolding before your eyes on a daily basis. I have emphasized this in recent weeks and months ...

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Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

A positive week for the market which saw big follow-through moves result in new highs for financials, small caps, transports, and semis amongst others. Breadth also improved and bullish sentiment soared along with equity ETF inflows.

Here's the ...

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Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

This week was more proof if it were needed, that prediction in markets is futile. Possibly in politics too. I'm not going to pretend I have any valuable insight into the political consequences of what transpired. The more ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

The chart of the S&P over the last two weeks makes the short-term trend very clear. This week started with a brief rally attempt that quickly gave way to renewed selling, and that remained the story throughout the week ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

The theme of the last few weeks is still in play. US markets remain mixed, with the S&P 500 continuing to retest its breakout levels from July on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. The outperformance in small caps ...

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Comments

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Overview

It feels like I'm having to say the same thing each week, but the fact is very little has changed for some time now. The S&P 500 continues to consolidate the breakout from July and remains in a ...

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Weekend Review and Watchlist

I apologize I'm posting this a little later than usual as I've been traveling this weekend, so this will be a briefer version of our regular overview and commentary.

Overview

The major indices were lower on the week ...

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