Morning Comment...Visa/Mastercard are Getting Extended...June 18, 2019 - BTFNow

We had the lowest volume of the year yesterday…as just 2.26bn shares exchanged hands in the composite volume…so there’s no question that investors are waiting to hear what the Fed has to say in their announcement and in Chairman Powell’s press conference tomorrow afternoon. That doesn’t mean we won’t get any movement today, but it should still be a quiet day in terms of activity.

The day before a Fed press conference (especially before a two-day meeting) tends to involve what has become known as “Fed creep”…as the stock market tends to creep higher on the day before those meetings. That doesn’t mean that the market always rallies after the meeting, but it usually helps the market move higher before hand. It could/should be an even bigger move this time…because ECB Chairman Mario Draghi made very dovish comments at their annual forum.

More specifically, he said that “additional stimulus will be required” if the economic outlooks does not improve….and that renewed asset purchases are an option…even if that means raising their self-imposed limits on how much they can buy. These comments have the yield on the German 10yr yield falling further into negative territory (-0.31% as we write)…and has caused European stocks to bounce nicely into positive territory. It also has the S&P futures trading 18 points higher in pre-market trading…so it certainly does look like we’re going to get some “Fed creep” today. On top of this, the yield on the U.S. 10yr note has fallen to its lowest level for this move at 2.022%.

If the global central banks act in a coordinated way, these kind of dovish comments bode well for some further dovish/bullish comments from Fed ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment....Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the "Wimp Factor"....June 17, 2019 - BTFNow

It was a relatively quiet week last week…as the major averages saw their smallest moves since the stock market began to pull-back on May 3rd. This lack of movement also came on the lowest weekly volume of the year ...

Read More
Comments

The Weekly Top 10...Any Upcoming Rate Cuts Will Be Determined by the Data and the Markets, NOT the Calendar...June 16, 2019 - BTFNow

THE WEEKLY TOP 10

Table of Contents:

1) If the Fed remains “market dependent”, they won’t cut rates until the market experience more stress.

2) There’s no question that the recent bounce has NOT been fueled by improving ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment...Stock Poised For Another Leg Lower....June 14, 2019 - BTFNow

The last two days have been ridiculously quiet in the market place…as the composite volume has been just been just 2.47bn and 2.5bn shares on Wednesday & Thursday. Only the Friday before Memorial Day has seen lower ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment...Ford has a lot of potential upside over the next 18 months...June 13, 2019 - BTFNow

For the first time in many, many weeks…we had a VERY uneventful day in the broad stock market yesterday. Sure, we’ve had plenty of days when the stock market closed very near the unchanged level for the day ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment...This Rally is Losing Steam, But the Healthcare Stocks Look Good; June 11, 2019 - BTFNow

The stock market finished the day yesterday nicely in positive territory and the futures are trading higher this morning…so everything seems right with the world. The problem is that the “internals” in the market have not been very good ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment. June 10, 2019 - BTFNow

Morning Comment....The Dollar is Testing Key Support

Friday’s weaker-than-expected employment report led to a sharp drop in long-term bond yields…and to higher odds that the Fed will cut interest rates this summer. This, in turn, led to ...

Read More
Comments

The Weekly Top 10; June 9, 2019

THE WEEKLY TOP 10

Table of Contents:

1) Our call for a bounce worked well...but we don't think it will continue.

2) The Fed has shifted, but not enough to think they'll act before another decline in ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment...Near term, stocks are oversold.

Below you will find my "Morning Comment" from Monday June 3, 2019. In it, I explained why I thought the stock market was ripe for a sharp bounce. Stocks did indeed rally last week, so this call worked out quite ...

Read More
Comments