Good afternoon!

Every now and then, I force myself to try to look at things with "the other side's" bullish lenses on - just to be sure I'm not missing anything obvious.

Today, I looked at the monthly charts of ES, NQ and IWM (Russell 2000 ETF).

While the ES and NQ charts are challenging to decipher, the IWM chart provided me with some clarity on the possible true wave count for the market.

Take a look:

This chart clearly indicates that the small caps just completed an abc downside correction for wave iv of 3. The next (current) wave is now wave v of 3 to the upside with a projected target of 126.14 to 137.18 (from 100.45 currently). Once that peak is made up there, another sharp decline should commence for wave 4 lower.

I did the same exercise for the ES and NQ charts and came up with the findings on the attached SS.

All this being noted, and with the knowledge that crude may have room up to 34 or so in the short-term (after a brief pullback hopefully), it may be the proper move to look to buy dips until the wave v peaks are made. Short / bearish may be wrong for a while.

My calls for much lower prices for ES may have been off in timing / wave count, but they remain pretty much intact for after the current wave "v" peak is made. Sorry for the sudden adjustment, but I owe it to you to present this stuff when I discover it.

Getting hammered on this crude short. The big move occurred overnight while we were sleeping - unfortunately. We will be monitoring the action to see how we can minimize the damage and get on the right side of things.

In ...

So, rumors of Saudi / Russia collaboration caused a 15% rally off of last week's lows for crude and a lesser rally in sympathy by equities. The rumors of some type of action came to fruition overnight last night - ...

I'm thinking 28.30 is a certainty and 28.88 - 29.03 is a possibility on this little bounce in crude - but then that's it. We should see one more stab lower in crude down to the low 25s before a ...

Covered in our weekly Fintec Factor report includes:

• S&P futures
• Gold
• Crude oil
• Coffee
• Sugar
• Soybean meal
• Wheat
• Corn
• Soybeans

A truly sick market never hits upside targets before turning lower again (and frequently undercuts downside projected targets before bouncing meagerly). If that isn't wheat we've got right now, I don't know what is.

We're now of the mindset that ...

January 8, 2015:

BEARS FEAST AS THE BULLS’ HOPES ARE DASHED BY REALITY

Here are some random observations before we get into today’s analysis:

• The risk markets are in full bear mode now.Rallies must be met with skepticism for the ...

...after peeking at the charts just now:

1. Current long-term allocations for the Sea Change Core Equity Model remain at 16.66% long of QQQ (or large cap US stock mutual funds / annuity sub-accounts) and 84% cash. Nothing close to joining ...

Sea Change now 33 wins / last 40 ideas ( ETFs & stocks)...portf up 36.14% since 11/2...all swing & day trades based on tech / quant analysis #trading #stocks #proshares

Since 10/23, our service is 32 winners out of the last 37 recos and has taken model from 83k to over 110k as of 12/21 close - mostly just using ETFs

December 18, 2015:

AFTER HEAD-FAKE RALLY WEDNESDAY POST-FED, RISK BACK IN BEAR MODE

Here are some random observations before we get into today’s analysis:

• The risk markets reacted initially with glee following the long-anticipated rate hike by the US Federal ...

Either:

• The minis pull back a 61.8% retrace of the rally that started at 1983 and lasted til the peak today - which would take prices down to 2015 - 2016; or,
• They only pull them back to 2048, 2036 ...