Morning Comment: Is Bitcoin's weakness due to the Fed's


The stock market came roaring back from Friday’s big decline and it allowed the S&P 500 take back everything it lost on that day. The rally came on mediocre volume of just 3bn shares, so that’s a bit disappointing. However, the breadth picture was very interesting. The breadth for the S&P 500 index was excellent at more than 20 to 1 positive (and 30 to 0 on the DJIA)! It was 5 to 1 positive for the NYSE Composite volume and less than 4 to 1 positive for the Russell 2000, so the wildly positive breadth in the S&P 500 was not as strong in other areas. (In fact, the advancers vs. decliners was only 1.4 to 1 positive for the Nasdaq Composite.) In other words, the “internals” in yesterday’s rally were certainly very good, but since the volume was low and the breadth was not quite as broad as it may have looked to the untrained eye, we’re going to have to see more upside follow-through before we can say that the coast is clear.

Except for some vague stories about the Fed tightening their policy at a gradual rate, there really wasn’t any new-news to account for the strong rally. Of course, much of that “gradual” theme stemmed from the expectations that Chairman Powell will continue to speak in a very dovish manner when he testifies in front of Congress today, so maybe that will indeed be enough to help the stock market rally further. However, yesterday’s rally also leaves the market quite vulnerable if Mr. Powell isn’t quite as dovish as he has been in his recent comments. (His most recent comments were less than a week ago, so there is no reason to believe he’ll change them, but if the market is looking for him to ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: The Recent Drop in Yields Actually Makes it Easier for the Fed to


The focus this week for many investors will be the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday…and the announcement and press conference that will follow. Tomorrow’s PPI number should get a lot of attention as well, but the big question the markets are ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) If the S&P, Nasdaq & Russell can see meaningful breakouts, we’ll have to turn more constructive.

2) Despite the way it seems, the stock market rally has stalled-out.

3) There are signs ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Listen to what the Fed & Treasury Dept are telling us: Rates are going higher.



Friday’s weaker-than-expected employment report led to a good-sized drop in the yield on the U.S. 10-year note…which closed at 1.55%. It is bouncing slightly this morning up to almost 1.58%, but it is still within the sideways range we talked ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: No, it's not different this time.


Although the monthly employment report can sometimes create a big move in the marketplace, it certainly doesn’t always do that, so today could end up being a real yawner of a day. (If we don’t see much movement in the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Crude oil/energy stocks poised to breakout (again).



Sometimes the stock market closes at a much different level than the futures were indicating in the pre-market earlier that day. Thus, the fact that the futures are trading much higher this morning does not guarantee that we’ll have a ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Bank stocks poised to make yet another


We had a pretty uneventful day in the stock market on Friday…as the market trading in a fairly tight range…on low volume and breadth that was not particularly compelling. The futures are trading higher this morning as we move into ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Very important week for Bitcoin...and for Tesla.

Do you ever wonder what Elon Musk says to his friends in the evening? This is what he might have said late last week. “I’m bored. Since I’m not in the lime-light to the huge degree I was last weekend ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Focusing on LT rates & the semis.....Will Bitcoin hold?

It’s amazing. The stock market got hit hard yesterday…and every bull on Wall Street tried to say that they saw it coming. (In other words, they said the same thing they always say when these moves take place.) That said, ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: If Inflation is Only Transitory, Default is the Only Outcome. (Thus it Won't be Transitory.)

Well, we sure are glad that we made fun of the NY Yankees a couple of weeks ago when we had the chance…because they are on a MAJOR roll…and we’re barely one month into the season. Thank God they came ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Updating my view not the semis, the consumer staples and the Fed.


  • The consumer staples stocks have continued to perform in-line with the S&P 500 since early March. Investors should consider adding exposure to this sector…as it should provide upside (market-sized) returns if the broad market continues to rally going forward….AND provide ...
Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Charts on Bunds, European Banks, FB, AAPL, & STX


Well, there’s no question that there will be a lot of news today…so it will be interesting to see if any of it (or if all of it combined) will create a measurable move in the stock market. We get ...

Read More
Comments