Morning Comment: Focusing on LT rates & the semis.....Will Bitcoin hold?

It’s amazing. The stock market got hit hard yesterday…and every bull on Wall Street tried to say that they saw it coming. (In other words, they said the same thing they always say when these moves take place.) That said, most of the perma-bulls did get one thing right, the decline we’ve seen so far is not a major one at all. Sure, yesterday’s drop was a big one for a single day, but the S&P stands only 4% below it all-time highs! Even the Nasdaq…which is about 8% below its own highs…has still not declined to the same degree it did in late February/early March of this year…and September of last year. On both of those occasions, the Nasdaq fell into official correction territory before it bottomed.

Therefore, the good news is that the stock market’s decline has not been very significant…and this could merely be the kind of normal/healthy pull-back that all bull markets see from time to time. The bad news is that it could (and probably should) fall further before the market bottoms-out. No, that doesn’t mean it cannot bounce for a couple of days. However, despite what several pundits tried to claim yesterday, there wasn’t any “panic” in the marketplace…and there wasn’t any “capitulation”…which is something we usually see at a bottom of some importance.

When we see panic or capitulation, it always includes a huge jump in volume. That has not taken place at all this week. The volume on the composite volume was over 3.2bn shares…which is nowhere near the levels we’ve seen at the panic lows of last March…when those number reached 7bn shares several times! Also, although the volume in the QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF reached 89 million shares (which is high for the past few weeks), that is s much ...

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Morning Comment: If Inflation is Only Transitory, Default is the Only Outcome. (Thus it Won't be Transitory.)

Well, we sure are glad that we made fun of the NY Yankees a couple of weeks ago when we had the chance…because they are on a MAJOR roll…and we’re barely one month into the season. Thank God they came ...

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Morning Comment: Updating my view not the semis, the consumer staples and the Fed.


  • The consumer staples stocks have continued to perform in-line with the S&P 500 since early March. Investors should consider adding exposure to this sector…as it should provide upside (market-sized) returns if the broad market continues to rally going forward….AND provide ...
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Morning Comment: Charts on Bunds, European Banks, FB, AAPL, & STX


Well, there’s no question that there will be a lot of news today…so it will be interesting to see if any of it (or if all of it combined) will create a measurable move in the stock market. We get ...

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Morning Comment: Bitcoin...vulnerable to a drop to $41K?


The capital gains tax proposal that was put out by the Biden Administration knocked-down the stock market yesterday afternoon, but it was hardly a disaster. The decline came on breadth that was benign….and even though volume did increase, it was ...

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Morning Comment: Small-cap problems...Lumber is ripe for a decline (is that a problem for HD & LOW?)



The stock market took it on the chin again yesterday, but this week’s decline is still only a blip on the radar screen of the long-term picture of the stock market. Yes, volume did pick-up, so that’s a concern….but given ...

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Morning Comment: Tech Stocks at a KEY Technical Juncture


We’re heading into earnings season for the tech stocks…and it’s coming at a time that the sector stands at a key technical juncture. IBM reported better-than-expected numbers last night and it is trading 3% higher in the pre-market. However, IBM ...

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Morning Comment: Today is (almost) all about COIN and Bitcoin



We had yet another pretty uneventful day yesterday. Yes, the S&P rallied 13 points and the Nasdaq rose more than 1%, but they both had negative breadth and volume remained very low. (The composite volume was higher than Friday and ...

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Morning Comment: Energy ETF's Testing Key Support...Bitcoin Breaking Out.



We had yet another boring day in the stock market yesterday…as volume continues to come-in at/near the lows of the year….and the intraday range for the S&P 500 has been less than one-half of one percent on four of the ...

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Morning Comment: Financial stocks still look great on a longer-term basis


You can’t get a lot more boring than we got yesterday in the broad stock market….as the major averages finished the day pretty much unchanged on the lowest volume day of the year so far. This action (or non-action) is ...

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Morning Comment: ARKK....AMZN....Mary Jane Bush


  • Some profit taking in front of tomorrow's employment report?
  • $110 is the KEY support level for ARKK
  • Ditto for the $2,950 level on AMZN.
  • A tribute to Mary Jane Bush, Wall Street pioneer.


The stock futures are trading higher this ...

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Morning Comment: Small-caps, Biotechs testing KEY support levels


If history is any guide the market tends to rally at the end of the quarter…as institutional investors mark-up their favorite picks. Thus, with only two days left in the first quarter, maybe it should be no surprise that the ...

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