THE WEEKLY TOP 10

I’ll be away next weekend, so I will send-out an abbreviated edition of “The Weekly Top 10” on Thursday evening. Thank you very much.


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) When inflation is induced by a lack of supply (rather than stronger demand), it’s not good for asset prices.

2) The complacency in the U.S. markets surrounding Evergande (& China in general) is astonishing.

3) China is clamping down on “risk taking”…other powers are considering the same thing.

4) The 50-DMA on the S&P 500 is more than just a key support level for technicians in today’s market.

5) Sentiment is not anywhere near as bullish as it usually is at important tops in the stock market.

6) Natural gas has become extremely overbought, so don’t chase it (or natural gas-related stocks).

7) The XLI (industrial ETF) has been a key leading indicator for the economy…& it’s now testing key support.

8) After a quick dip, the U.S. 10-year yield is already retesting its key resistance level!

9) Washington DC is still clueless about what Americans are feeling & thinking today.

10) Summary of our current stance.


1) During the first quarter of the year, some experts started to say that the supply chain problems would persist into the first half of 2022. That has now become the base-case scenario for everybody…with more and more pundits expecting it to be a problem throughout ALL of next year. In our minds, this means that inflation will not be very transitory at all…and given that supply-induced inflation is MUCH different than demand-induced inflation, these problems will likely cause complications for economic growth and create headwinds for the stock market going forward.

As we moved towards the end of the first quarter this year, we started hearing some alarming comments from ...

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Morning Comment: Liquidity stresses in China growing


Last year, at about this time, we turned bullish on the bank stocks. We said that after 2.5 years of underperformance, the group would finally start to outperform the market. There were not very many people who agreed with us. ...

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Morning Comment: Oil & gas stock poised to breakout again?



After falling for five straight days, the S&P 500 looks higher by about a half a percentage point this morning. There does not seem to be a key reason why the market is bouncing back this morning…other than the fact ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10

We just want to make a quick comment because we have some new readers. Each point begins with a very quick summery (in bold letters) of what we’ll say in the “body” of that bullet point. We still like to ...

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Morning Comment.......Never forget.

Tomorrow will be the 20th anniversary of 9/11, so it’s tough to talk about the markets on a day like this. With this in mind, we’ll just highlight a few bullet points…and leave the rest of the market analysis to ...

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Morning Comment: Imminent change in trend for the bond market?



Well, here we are, it’s September. Sure, it technically began last Wednesday, but now that Labor Day weekend is behind us, the seasonally September/October timeframe has officially begun. Of course, the fact that everybody is talking about this seasonally tough ...

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Morning Comment: ECB warning....China warning....Mega-cap tech extended.



The stock market rallied for the seventh time in eight days yesterday, but Monday’s move was a very narrow one, and it came on very low volume. Despite the 20-point rally in the S&P 500, the breadth for that index ...

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Morning Comment: Long-term yields creeping higher.....GOOGL getting very overbought


As we move closer to this week’s KC Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole, the yield on the U.S 10-year note has crept a bit higher…and it is now back above 1.3%. This is not a major development. In fact, the ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t blame the Fed if that stock market corrects at some point this year.

2) “Supply constraint” inflation is much different (and much worse) than “demand led” inflation.

3) Economic data could ...

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Morning Comment: Stagflation is the real concern, so stop blaming the Fed.



We got a relative sharp decline in the stock market yesterday on very poor breadth (8 to 1 negative on the S&P 500), but volume was not very strong (just 2.4bn shares on the composite volume). However, the market closed ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The argument that ultra-low rates justify higher stock prices is quite flawed in today’s world.

2) The stock market IS expensive. Don’t let anybody tell you otherwise.

2a) The odds that the ...

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Morning Comment: LT Rates Are Headed Higher, So Value Should Outperform Growth Going Forward.



It is interesting to see/hear the big divergence that has developed recently between the bullish and bearish opinions on the variants of the coronavirus. On the bullish side of things, we’re hear some health experts say that this the current ...

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