Morning Comment: More reasons why the Treasury market stands at a critical level.....David McCulough.



We’ve seen some big intraday swings in the S&P 500 so far this month, but it’s funny how it tends to still close near the “unchanged” level on most days. In fact, the SPX is pretty much unchanged since the last day of trading in July. Of course, we’ve only had six days of trading so far this month, so it’s still early. Besides, this all-important index had rallied more than 5% over the last 3 day of trading in July (after already rising 7% before those last three days in July)…so the fact that it hasn’t done much so far this much is not a concern at all. In fact, it could be views as a healthy “breather”…that is merely helping the stock market digest its strong gains from the summer rally.

It is our guess that today will be an uneventful one. We have the big inflation number (CPI) coming tomorrow morning…so we could see investors and traders sit on their hands today…much like they did last Thursday (the day before the big employment report). Despite the fact that the market has seen several days with some big swings, last Thursday was not one of those days. It gave us the tightest range for the S&P all year…as people waited for the employment report. We could/should see similar action (or inaction) today.

The futures are trading a bit lower today…after the negative pre-announcement out of Micron (MU). This follows a similar announcement from Nvidia (NVDA) yesterday…so there is a real chance that the market will not be able to stay within a tight range today. Instead, it could see some weakness given how important the chip stocks are to the broad market. (“Sell the news” on the signing of the “Chips Act.”???)

Having said this, tomorrow’s CPI data ...

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Morning Comment: What is the "natural" level for the markets?


Friday’s much stronger than expected employment report had an outsized impact on the bond market…as the yield on the U.S. 10yr Treasury note jumped from 2.68% to 2.83%. However, it did not have much of an impact on the stock ...

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Morning Comment: The stock market is getting overbought near-term.


Our morning comment yesterday was “short and sweet.” Well, today is going to be pretty short and sweet as well…for the simple reason that a lot of things could change after the employment report comes out later this morning. We’re ...

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Morning Comment.....Long-term yields: Yet another market that sits at a critical juncture.



The abundance of “Fed speak” that we knew we’d be getting this week has indeed pushed-back on the notion that the Fed is going to pivot quickly from the tighten policy that began this year. This, along with the concerns ...

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Morning Comment: 100-DMA on the SPX.....Bill Russell



Well, the stock market did extremely well on the two days we were off at the end of last week….and the rally had taken the S&P 500 to less than 2% from the 4,200 level that a lot of technicians ...

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Morning Comment: What is the Fed's real goal. (It's not to keep stocks in perpetual rally mode.)


It’s funny, the success or failure of today’s Fed announcement and Chairman Powell’s press conference will be determined by how the stock market reacts to it. If it rallies, today will be deemed a success by the Street…and if the ...

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Morning Comment: Critical level for long-term yields...and it's not bullish for stocks.


The stock market remains on its low-volume upward trajectory…as investors continue to somehow think that “bad news is good news” for the stock market. Despite the lower LEI data, another number showing that jobless claims are rising, and an absolutely ...

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Morning Comment: Energy stocks poised to regain their upside momentum.


The domestic stock futures are trading higher this morning. A lot can change between now and the opening, but if they can remain elevated, it will mean that the S&P 500 will open very near the key 3,900 resistance level ...

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Morning Comment: Can the market continue to shake-off bad news?


The CPI inflation number was higher than expected yesterday, but several pundits said that it was likely the last “hot inflation” report we’ll see. They could be correct, but who cares? If inflation is going to plateau at a level ...

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Morning Comment: Dollar & euro getting ripe for short-term reversals.


The stock market took it on the chin yesterday, but it came on the lowest volume of the year for the composite volume (just 3.2bn shares). The breadth on the S&P 500 was not intense either…at less than 3 to ...

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Morning Comment: Commodities getting ripe for a bounce-back?


Those who are looking for inflation to take a back seat to other issues in the second half of the year are very likely be disappointed over the coming weeks……….It is very interesting to read and hear that so ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY T0P 10


Table of Contents:

1) The Fed is telling us that they’re that it will take more than just a further slowdown in growth to cause them to shift their policy.

2) It will take more than ...

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