THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Stagflation IS here…and it IS going to get worse.

2) On a technical basis, we sit at a CRITICAL juncture for the S&P 500 and NDX 100.

3) A “re-rating/re-valuation” process in the U.S. stock market was inevitable…and it will continue.

4) People still can’t make themselves believe that the “Fed put” is still at a much lower level.

5) Credit spreads continue to widen. God help us if we’re headed for a “credit event.”

6) Get ready for a lot more volatility in the currency markets!

7) Believe it or not, the XLK tech ETF is still above its March highs.

8) We tend to need an important change in policy to create a bottom in the stock market.

9) Will the “curse of the cover story” claim Elon Musk as a victim?

10) Summery of our current stance…....The Mork & Mindy syndrome.


1) The majority of Wall Street does their best to avoid discussing the issue of stagflation. No, they don’t completely ignore it, but they are not giving this issue the due it deserves. The war in Ukraine…and the way it has played-out thus far…has raised the odds substantially that we will indeed get a meaningful bout of meaningful stagflation over the next year or more.

It’s interesting to see how little attention the war in Ukraine has been getting over the past two weeks or so. In our opinion, the development that took place in the Russia/Ukraine War during April are just as important (or even more important) than any other issue facing the markets right now…..The war has shifted from one that was supposed to be a short-term “blitzkrieg” type of takeover of Ukraine…to one that has become a “war of attrition.” This means that ...

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Morning Comment: How long will a short-term bounce last?


The stock market stands at a precarious position and thus any further downside movement...either now, or after a short-term bounce...will be very negative for the stock market on a technical basis.

The Nasdaq fell to its lowest levels of the ...

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Morning Comment: A break market in bonds will not be bullish for stocks.


There are some pundits who believe that a major sell-off in bonds will be bullish for stocks because the sellers of those bonds will use the proceeds to buy stocks. What these pundits don't understand is that the seller of ...

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Morning Comment: Long-term bonds are quite ripe for a bounce (and thus fall in yields).


  • We saw some more technical damage yesterday, so the stock market needs to bounce quickly and sharply to keep its recent upside momentum.
  • The Treasury bond market is ripe for a bounce (fall in yields). This could take place EVEN ...
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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The divergence between the stock and bond markets go way beyond just the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-yr note.

2) Saying that the stock market has “priced-in” what is going on ...

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Morning Comment: Tighter financial conditions are bearish for stocks.....Justin Rose.


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It was another wild day for the stock market…as the NDX Nasdaq 100 index saw ...

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Morning Comment: "If Stocks Don't Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them."


The second most powerful person at the Fed (by far) is usually the NY Fed President. Well, one of the former NY Fed President's is telling us that the Fed actually WANTS the stock market to decline going forward....thus investors ...

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Morning Comment: The XLK tech ETF is testing key resistance


Morning Comment: The XLK tech ETF is testing key resistance.


  • The “internals” were mediocre yesterday, but the rally still pushed the S&P and Nasdaq closer to their key resistance levels.
  • If the XLK tech ETF can break its key resistance ...
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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t watch the 3-month T-bill when looking at the yield curve….Also, you don’t need a recession to knock down an artificially inflated stock market.

2) We got some important proof last week ...

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Morning Comment: Will the end of the quarter bring an end to some artificial demand for stocks?


Morning Comment: Wil the end of the quarter bring an end to some artificial demand for stocks?


  • Good day for the stock market yesterday. (Better “internals”)
  • However, the yen continues to bounce…and the end of the quarter could signal ...
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Morning Comment: The Ukraine Crisis Will Be With Us a Long Time....Bitcoin Breakout


With just four days left in the quarter, the stock market continues to bounce off its mid-March lows. The futures are trading slightly higher this morning despite the fact that interest rates are moving higher. (The yield on the 10yr ...

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Morning Comment: Can AMZN regain some former glory?.....Ned Johnson


We got some good news and some bad news yesterday. The good news is that the major stock averages regained more than they lost on Wednesday…and the rally came on very good breadth. The bad news is that it came ...

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