Morning Comment: No, it's not different this time.


Although the monthly employment report can sometimes create a big move in the marketplace, it certainly doesn’t always do that, so today could end up being a real yawner of a day. (If we don’t see much movement in the morning, you could/should see a lot of people in New York head out of town by noontime today…given how bad the weather was last weekend in the Northeast.)

That said, if we do get data on the employment front that is a lot different than what the consensus is looking for, the move in the markets could be a big one. As we have highlighted many times recently, both the bond and stock markets have been stuck in sideways ranges for 6-7 weeks now. Whenever any market gets stuck in a multi-week range, the move in the direction of the “break” tends to be a big one…once it finally takes place. Therefore, we could certainly see some fireworks today.

Earlier this week, we highlighted the support and resistance levels for the yield on the U.S. 10yr note. Today, we’d like to do the same thing for the yield curve (the 2yr/10yr spread). The situation is basically the same as it is for 10yr yield. In other words, the support & resistance levels are the lows and the highs since mid-April…but it will take a break above the March highs to confirm that another steepening leg for the yield curve has begun. (Therefore, there is just one support level. On the resistance side of things, there are two levels, BUT a break of the first level will still be compelling. It just won’t be definitive.)

As the first chart below shows, the support level on the 2yr/10yr spread is 138.67 basis points (the closing low from April 22nd). The first resistance ...

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Morning Comment: Crude oil/energy stocks poised to breakout (again).



Sometimes the stock market closes at a much different level than the futures were indicating in the pre-market earlier that day. Thus, the fact that the futures are trading much higher this morning does not guarantee that we’ll have a ...

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Morning Comment: Bank stocks poised to make yet another


We had a pretty uneventful day in the stock market on Friday…as the market trading in a fairly tight range…on low volume and breadth that was not particularly compelling. The futures are trading higher this morning as we move into ...

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Morning Comment: Very important week for Bitcoin...and for Tesla.

Do you ever wonder what Elon Musk says to his friends in the evening? This is what he might have said late last week. “I’m bored. Since I’m not in the lime-light to the huge degree I was last weekend ...

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Morning Comment: Focusing on LT rates & the semis.....Will Bitcoin hold?

It’s amazing. The stock market got hit hard yesterday…and every bull on Wall Street tried to say that they saw it coming. (In other words, they said the same thing they always say when these moves take place.) That said, ...

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Morning Comment: If Inflation is Only Transitory, Default is the Only Outcome. (Thus it Won't be Transitory.)

Well, we sure are glad that we made fun of the NY Yankees a couple of weeks ago when we had the chance…because they are on a MAJOR roll…and we’re barely one month into the season. Thank God they came ...

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Morning Comment: Updating my view not the semis, the consumer staples and the Fed.


  • The consumer staples stocks have continued to perform in-line with the S&P 500 since early March. Investors should consider adding exposure to this sector…as it should provide upside (market-sized) returns if the broad market continues to rally going forward….AND provide ...
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Morning Comment: Charts on Bunds, European Banks, FB, AAPL, & STX


Well, there’s no question that there will be a lot of news today…so it will be interesting to see if any of it (or if all of it combined) will create a measurable move in the stock market. We get ...

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Morning Comment: Bitcoin...vulnerable to a drop to $41K?


The capital gains tax proposal that was put out by the Biden Administration knocked-down the stock market yesterday afternoon, but it was hardly a disaster. The decline came on breadth that was benign….and even though volume did increase, it was ...

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Morning Comment: Small-cap problems...Lumber is ripe for a decline (is that a problem for HD & LOW?)



The stock market took it on the chin again yesterday, but this week’s decline is still only a blip on the radar screen of the long-term picture of the stock market. Yes, volume did pick-up, so that’s a concern….but given ...

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Morning Comment: Tech Stocks at a KEY Technical Juncture


We’re heading into earnings season for the tech stocks…and it’s coming at a time that the sector stands at a key technical juncture. IBM reported better-than-expected numbers last night and it is trading 3% higher in the pre-market. However, IBM ...

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Morning Comment: Today is (almost) all about COIN and Bitcoin



We had yet another pretty uneventful day yesterday. Yes, the S&P rallied 13 points and the Nasdaq rose more than 1%, but they both had negative breadth and volume remained very low. (The composite volume was higher than Friday and ...

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