Morning Comment: Healthcare sector poised to outperform.



The stock market just keeps on humming along. Both the S&P has rallied five days in a row…and has successfully moved above its key resistance level (its 50-DMA). In fact, for all practical purposes, the S&P 500 is now testing its all-time highs from the beginning of September……Yes, we suppose this means that the stock market could be forming a “double-top” (like it did in 2000 and 2007), but there is no question that the rally from the early October low has been an impressive one.

If there was one concern about this week’s leg in the bounce of the past few weeks is that it is coming on falling volume and mediocre breadth. The composite volume has fallen each of the last two days…and the breadth for the S&P 500 was only 2.7 to 1 positive yesterday…which is not good at all for an index that rallied 0.74%. Thus, this makes two days in a row where the “internals” were not particularly good. However, this just might be telling us that the market needs to take a breather after its 5.1% bounce since October 4th (and after it has rallied five days in a row)…rather than telling us that the recent rally does not have legs.

Even though the internals have not been very good the past two days, it HAS been impressive to see the stock market rally in the face of a rise in long-term yields. The yield on the 10yr note made a new high for this move…and sits at 1.63% as we write this morning. The rise in yields that began in August seemed to cause the decline in the stock market in September…and did the same thing back in September of last year…so the fact that the market is rallying in the face ...

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Morning Comment: Don't Fight The Fed


Back in the middle of September, the S&P 500 broke below its 50-DMA in a material way for only the second time this year. The first time it happened (in March), it rebounded within two days and then continued to ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Friday’s employment report should not keep the Fed from tapering.

2) 3 major economic powers are getting less stimulative. That’s all you need to know.

3) Inflation fears will remain even if ...

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Morning Comment: Otter was right!



Today could be one of those days where all investors wait around to see what happens next. Sometimes, there is a very important data point that everybody wants to see; or there is a speech that everybody wants to hear. ...

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Morning Comment:

Tomorrow night, the Boston Red Sox and the NY Yankees will play in the wild card playoff game at Fenway Park in Boston. This is essentially a “play-in” game for the American League playoffs. Just over 40 years ago, we ...

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Morning Comment: Three Key Changes In Trend That Concern Us Greatly



It was another rough day in the marketplace yesterday…and seems to be pointing to lower stock prices as we move into October (no matter what happens today). Probably the worst development from yesterday was that the Yankees won and the ...

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Morning Comment: We're following the same script as this time last year.


We had a very mixed day in the stock market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined, while the DJIA and the Russell 2000 rallied. We had a similar divergence among the groups, with the energy and financial sectors rallying strongly, ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10

I am told that there was a problem with posting my “Weekly Top 10” last evening. Therefore, I thought I’d re-send it myself this morning. My apologies if this is a dupe. (BTW, this was written before the news that ...

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Morning Comment: The spill-over of a key de-risking policy.


Much like the coronavirus in January and February of 2020, the situation facing Evergrande has been staring investors in the face for a while now…and yet they have ignored the growing negative situation (mostly due to the fact that the ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10

I’ll be away next weekend, so I will send-out an abbreviated edition of “The Weekly Top 10” on Thursday evening. Thank you very much.


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) When inflation is induced by a lack of ...

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Morning Comment: Liquidity stresses in China growing


Last year, at about this time, we turned bullish on the bank stocks. We said that after 2.5 years of underperformance, the group would finally start to outperform the market. There were not very many people who agreed with us. ...

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Morning Comment: Oil & gas stock poised to breakout again?



After falling for five straight days, the S&P 500 looks higher by about a half a percentage point this morning. There does not seem to be a key reason why the market is bouncing back this morning…other than the fact ...

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