Morning Comment: The Japanese Yen Has Become Extremely Oversold


At the beginning of week, we said that this week could/should be an important one for the stock market. Well, we still think it is…and today could be the most important day of the week. We say this because it was disappointing that the stock market followed its recent strong rally with such a meaningful decline yesterday. HOWEVER, as much as a drop of more than 1% is disappointing, it was not a disaster by any means. (This is especially true when you compare it to the huge advance we’ve seen over the past week or so.) Also, yesterday’s drop came on even lower volume that Tuesday’s…and the breadth was not horrible. (It was more than 4 to 1 negative for the S&P 500…and more than 5 to 1 negative for the NDX 100. Those aren’t good numbers, but they’re not overly bad either.)

This brings us to today. Will yesterday’s decline turn into a one-day wonder…and be followed by another strong advance? Or, will yesterday’s drop accelerate…and take us lower (on higher volume and more negative breadth)? Right now, the futures are pointing to a higher opening, but since we’ve seen so many reversals recently, we’ll have to see how things playout once the stock market actually opens for trading…..Over the next two trading days, whether the stock market bounces back nicely…or rolls back over and resumes its decline from yesterday should be important as to how the market acts into the end of the quarter.

Our call yesterday that said investors should avoid the bank stocks (and the financials in general) over the short-term worked out very well…as the KBE bank ETF and the KRE regional bank ETF both fell more than 3%...and the XLF financial stock ETF declined by almost 2%. This drop seemed to be caused ...

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Morning Comment: Bond yields due for a short-term pullback?


We got yet another strong day in the stock market yesterday…even though there really wasn’t any definitive positive news to account for the rally. That’s okay, sometimes the stock market sees something before most other people do…..Anyway, the rally came ...

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Morning Comment: Things have gotten worse on almost all fronts since January 21st



It was funny, the composite volume at 3:59pm on Friday afternoon was 4.9bn shares…but it finished the day with 7.9bn shares. So there is no question that the expiration definitely had an outsized impact on those numbers by the end ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Just a reminder, we usually try to include points from both sides of the bull/bear ledger each weekend. However, in our “summary,” we always make sure to let you know which side of that ledger we stand at any given ...

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Morning Comment: There are only two kinds of people in the world!


I have not been as close to the markets as I would have liked the past two days because I was travelling to attend a funeral. However, you didn’t have to be watching every tick in the marketplace to know ...

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Morning Comment: China....Crude oil.


The European markets and the domestic futures are all trading higher…on the news that Tom Brady has decided not to retire and return for a 23rd NFL season. (Sure, the story that the discussions between Russia and Ukraine about ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Russia/Ukraine…the Fed…Leverage. The unwinding of leverage is the most important threat.

2) Earnings estimates are about to fall out of bed.

3) Peabody Energy’s issue last week was much more than just ...

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Morning Comment: Did the other fellow just blink?


Back in October of 1962, in the middle of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Secretary of State Dean Rusk said, “We’re eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked.” It took place when Soviet Leader Khrushchev signaled his ...

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Morning Comment: Can the bounce in the bank stocks hold?


It was great to see the stock market bounce strongly yesterday…and we liked the fact that the breadth during the pop was quite good. (It was 5 to 1 positive for the S&P 500…8 to 1 for the NDX Nasdaq ...

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Morning Comment: "Sell the news" on crude oil?


We had all the makings of a “turnaround Tuesday” in the stock market yesterday. We had a big decline on Monday…that was followed by more downside movement Tuesday morning. Then, we got a very strong/sharp rally midday…and all of these ...

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Morning Comment: Semiconductors testing key support


As we watched the Sunday morning political shows yesterday, we could not help but notice how so many geopolitical and military experts focused on the airspace over Ukraine. Sure, they talked about the “no fly zone” issue, but what struck ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) To a certain degree, this is February 2020 all over again.

2) Sentiment is getting VERY bearish, that could be bullish over the short-term.

3) The Fed is stuck between a rock ...

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