THE WEEKLY TOP 10

We just want to make a quick comment because we have some new readers. Each point begins with a very quick summery (in bold letters) of what we’ll say in the “body” of that bullet point. We still like to use bold letters in other parts of the text to emphasize a point, but we just want to make sure new readers know why what we say after the first paragraph can sound a bit repetitive…..Thank you.



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) There’s no question that the last 2 QE programs have helped the stock market rally strongly.

2) When QE creates the “building up of leverage”…less QE creates the “unwinding of leverage.”

3) Stagflation is becoming more and more evident every week.

4) Suddenly, the outlook for earnings is not quite as strong as it has been for most of this year.

5) It’s not just the airline stocks, the railroads and trucker have been weak lately as well.

6) The CRB commodity index is close to breaking a key resistance level.

7) Declines of 4% do not create “great buying opportunities.”

8) U.S….China….Taiwan…….The situation continues to get more complicated.

9) Remembering 9/11……So many heroes.

10) Summary of our current stance.


1) The ECB announced last week that they are going to begin to taper back on their bond buying program by the end of the year…and we got more evidence that the Fed is VERY likely to start tapering on their own massive bond buying program before the end of the year as well (even if they don’t announce it in September)….We can argue whether this will have a negative impact on the markets or not, but one cannot argue that the Fed’s last two QE programs have helped the market rally strongly since September ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment.......Never forget.

Tomorrow will be the 20th anniversary of 9/11, so it’s tough to talk about the markets on a day like this. With this in mind, we’ll just highlight a few bullet points…and leave the rest of the market analysis to ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Imminent change in trend for the bond market?



Well, here we are, it’s September. Sure, it technically began last Wednesday, but now that Labor Day weekend is behind us, the seasonally September/October timeframe has officially begun. Of course, the fact that everybody is talking about this seasonally tough ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: ECB warning....China warning....Mega-cap tech extended.



The stock market rallied for the seventh time in eight days yesterday, but Monday’s move was a very narrow one, and it came on very low volume. Despite the 20-point rally in the S&P 500, the breadth for that index ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Long-term yields creeping higher.....GOOGL getting very overbought


As we move closer to this week’s KC Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole, the yield on the U.S 10-year note has crept a bit higher…and it is now back above 1.3%. This is not a major development. In fact, the ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t blame the Fed if that stock market corrects at some point this year.

2) “Supply constraint” inflation is much different (and much worse) than “demand led” inflation.

3) Economic data could ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Stagflation is the real concern, so stop blaming the Fed.



We got a relative sharp decline in the stock market yesterday on very poor breadth (8 to 1 negative on the S&P 500), but volume was not very strong (just 2.4bn shares on the composite volume). However, the market closed ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The argument that ultra-low rates justify higher stock prices is quite flawed in today’s world.

2) The stock market IS expensive. Don’t let anybody tell you otherwise.

2a) The odds that the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: LT Rates Are Headed Higher, So Value Should Outperform Growth Going Forward.



It is interesting to see/hear the big divergence that has developed recently between the bullish and bearish opinions on the variants of the coronavirus. On the bullish side of things, we’re hear some health experts say that this the current ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: The Fed Has Done a GREAT Job....High Yield Market Showing Some Cracks.


Seventeen months ago, the global economy was in free-fall. In fact, it was all but shutting down. This, in turn, caused the fixed income markets to freeze-up. Customers were even having a tough time getting Wall Street firms to make ...

Read More
Comments

Basic Material stocks are sending up a yellow warning flag on the economy

Key S&P sector may be signaling a second-half growth slowdown, strategist warns


Above, you can find the clip of the interview I did for CNBC.com yesterday (which was posted on their site today).

We've seen a drop in bond yields ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Basic Materials: Are they signaling a slow-down?

Trading in the overall marketplace yesterday was quite strange. It looked like we were going to get a repeat of what took place two Mondays ago. Back then, concerns over the delta variant of the coronavirus raised concerns about second ...

Read More
Comments