THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The stock market: Bullish near-term, cautious for 2021.

2) Many global stock markets look great near-term as well.

3) One concern is that sentiment is starting to get quite bullish.

4) A break above 1% on the 10yr note will confirm a change in LT rates.

4a) That will be bullish for banks...not so much for utilities.

5) Bitcoin: More upside potential, but it will see more very deep corrections.

6) We see more upside potential for the energy stocks.

7) Gold...Sitting at a key near-term technical juncture.

8) Tesla...Don’t forget that volatility is its middle name.

9) 2021 earnings estimates are not enough to fuel a further rally.

10) Summary of our current stance.


Short Version:

1) We are still bullish on the stock market for a year-end rally. We believe that the Fed will keep the liquidity spigots wide open during this new waves of lock-downs, BUT we want to make sure we reiterate that we are much more cautious for most of 2021. Once we get past this most recent wave of the pandemic, we believe the Fed will lighten up on their stimulus (to avoid another major bubble)...and we think new fiscal stimulus (besides the upcoming relief package) will be back-end loaded in future years. With the stock market as expensive as it is, the lower levels of stimulus will create headwinds for stocks much of next year.

2) The liquidity that should be provided during this newest wave of lockdowns will not be isolated to the Federal Reserve. Other global central banks will also continue to do the same...which will help many overseas markets rally further as well. Looking at Japan, India and South Korea, they’ve already made nice “higher-highs”...and Germany, the UK and China are close ...

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Morning Comment: Is The Trend For Long-Term Interest Rates About To Change?


With this morning’s employment report, this morning is a perfect time to update the chart on the yield U.S. 10-year Treasury note. Some of this will be merely be a review of things we’ve highlighted in the past, but given ...

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Morning Comment: The stock market rally is a global one!



Well, we got off to a great start to December in the stock market with a better than 1% rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, but we have to admit that it came on lower volume than we ...

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Morning Comment: Gold & copper poised to diverge...in the other direction.


Well the last two weeks have played out very much like we thought they would. Two weeks ago, we got a “breather” in the market place...which allowed the market to work-off some of the overbought condition that had built up ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Quick note: With the Thanksgiving holiday this upcoming week, things should be pretty quiet. By midday on Tuesday, the activity in the marketplace will slow down considerably and thus the moves in the market will not be very compelling. They’ll ...

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Morning Comment: Gold Testing Important Support.

For the first time since the Roosevelt Administration, the stock market fell for the second day in a row yesterday. (Ok, that is a LITTLE bit of an exaggeration, but it sure seems like we haven’t had two down days ...

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Morning Comment: Commodities Poised for a Breakout???


The positive news on a vaccine out of Moderna yesterday fueled another nice rally in the stock market...as the DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq all rallied strongly. (No, the Nasdaq did not rally as much as the ...

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Morning Comment: A Look at the Charts on Tesla (TSLA).


The action in the stock market was the mirror image of Monday’s action. That day, a big morning rally was reversed in the afternoon...and the market gave back much of its gains by the end of the day. Yesterday, a ...

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Morning Comment: Veteran's Day.....Masters Predictions.

Even though the S&P closed the day pretty much unchanged yesterday, it was still a wild day in the stock market yesterday. Despite that benign move in the S&P 500, the DJIA rallied almost 1% and the Russell rose 1.8%...while ...

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Bank stock traders: Remember, the bond market is closed tomorrow!

I just wanted to send out a very quick note about the bank stocks this afternoon. I have turned bullish on the group...especially with the break-out in the KBE. However, for those who like to trade quite actively...and like to ...

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Morning Comment: Can Banks & Small-caps Finally Outperform?


The domestic futures and the overseas markets are all trading substantially higher this morning...on the news that Notre Dame finally won an important football game...and the excitement surrounding this week’s Masters Golf tournament. Okay, okay...the fact that PFE announced that ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Our belief in a nice year-end rally remains intact.

2) However, next year will be much tougher for this very expensive market.

3) Many non-FAANG tech stocks actually have more momentum than ...

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