Morning Comment.....Chairman Powell: The Pinball Wizard.



Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did a masterful job yesterday of moving very slightly to a more hawkish stance about their bond buying (QE) program yesterday. Actually, we should use the term, “less dovish” rather than “more hawkish”…because his comments were not very hawkish at all, but he WAS able to move the narrative a bit closer to a discussion on when the Fed will “taper.”

One of the truly great rock bands, The Who, wrote MANY great songs over the years, but one of our favorites comes from the album, “Tommy.” (It later became a movie and is also known as a “Rock Opera.”) The song we’re talking about is “Pinball Wizard”…and it’s a classic. (In fact, even Elton John covered the song for the movie in the 1970s.) The reason we’re highlighting this fabulous rock song this morning is because Chairman Powell and the FED have been playing pinball all year…with the Chairman in control of the flippers….and there’s no question in our minds that he has become a “pinball wizard!”

The Fed “released the pinball” back in January…when Atlanta Fed President Bostic first breached the topic of tapering back on the Fed’s QE program at the very beginning of the year. In the following weeks, the ball bounced around on the bumpers…as several other FOMC members said that the Fed was still very dovish…while one or two others agreed with Mr. Bostic’s more hawkish stance. Each time the ball looked like it was going to fall into the “drain,” Chairman Powell came out with an ultra-dovish comment that acted like “flippers”…and sent the ball back into the game in a significant way.

As we went through the spring and into the summer, a few more FOMC members moved to the hawkish side of the ledger (with St. Louis ...

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Morning Comment: China fallout.....Big tech earnings



China’s stock market saw another sharp decline last night and that took the Shanghai Index below the 200-DMA for the first time in over a year. (Remember, that 200-DMA had provided excellent support for the stock market in March, April, ...

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Morning Comment: Yesterday did NOT provide a



It was a very rough day in the stock market yesterday, but the S&P was still able to hold its key support level (its 50 DMA), so it was not a disaster by any means. Besides, the S&P still ...

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Morning Comment: What are the NY Yankees telling us?


When we left the office yesterday, we thought we’d be starting this morning’s piece with a joke about NY Yankees. We were going to say that the story about several Yankees testing positive was completely made up…because they didn’t want ...

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Morning Comment: Highflyers stumbling.



After a very mild dip in mid-June, the stock market has rallied about 4%-5% over the last month. (+4% on the Nasdaq and +5% on the S&P 500.) However, it has not been a great couple of weeks for a ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Tech is too overbought to rally much further for a while.

2) However, AMZN could/should still outperform.

3) Chip stocks at key juncture with Taiwan Semi reporting this week.

4) Treasury yields ...

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Morning Comment: Tech looks particularly vulnerable


In our weekend piece, we said that the fact that the stock market was extremely expensive (and that leverage was extremely high) meant that the risk/reward equation was heavily skewed to the risk side of that equation. In other words, ...

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Morning Comment: AMZN poised to (finally) breakout?


Since we are coming off a long weekend and given the fact that earning season won’t really start for another week, it’s a good bet that the market will remain pretty quiet today. This does not mean that there won’t ...

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Morning Comment: Can Tesla (TSLA) makes headlines again???



The employment number was stronger that the consensus was looking for, but it was not far enough from those expectations to have an impact on the markets. In fact, the yield on the 10yr note is slightly lower than it ...

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Morning Comment: Mircon's earnings report (Wed) could shake up an otherwise quiet week.


We’re heading into what should be a quiet week for the stock market ahead of the long July 4th weekend. However, the next three trading days are the last three of the quarter (and the last three of the fiscal ...

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Morning Comment: Is Bitcoin's weakness due to the Fed's


The stock market came roaring back from Friday’s big decline and it allowed the S&P 500 take back everything it lost on that day. The rally came on mediocre volume of just 3bn shares, so that’s a bit disappointing. However, ...

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Morning Comment: The Recent Drop in Yields Actually Makes it Easier for the Fed to


The focus this week for many investors will be the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday…and the announcement and press conference that will follow. Tomorrow’s PPI number should get a lot of attention as well, but the big question the markets are ...

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