Morning Comment: The Fed is between a rock & a hard place.....Crude oil is getting overbought



Well, the stock market finally woke up to what the bond market (and energy markets) were telling it recently. As we highlighted yesterday, these other markets were screaming that the situation in eastern Europe is not a good one…as both to them were trading a much more extreme levels than the were last Thursday morning (when the shooting first started). While this was taking place, however, the stock market was still trading WELL ABOVE its lows from last Thursday…so it was only a matter of time before the stock market reacted in a negative way.

That said, even though stocks took it on the chin yesterday, the major averages are STILL well above those lows from last Thursday…so there could/should be some more weakness at some point going forward. Of course, this does not mean that the stock market will fall further immediately. One of the reasons why the stock market has held up so well is belief that the Fed will not be as aggressive in their new tightening policy as some were thinking they would be before the crisis in eastern Europe erupted. So if we get some positive reinforcement on this subject, the stock market could hold up (or even bounce) for a while.

There is no question that the market is no longer pricing-in any chance of a 50-basis point rate hike in March. The question now is whether the thought that Fed will not be EXTREMELY aggressive with their tightening policy will be enough to give the stock market a nice boost. In other words, if the Fed is still quite aggressive (25 basis points at most meetings this year)…will that be enough to keep investors from de-rising and de-leveraging their portfolios in this (still) expensive stock market…just because they’re not going with ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: The big disconnect...which market is right?


It was another wild ride in the stock market yesterday…as the S&P 500 saw a total of FIVE swings on 1% or more (and three others of 0.5%). Five swings of more than 1% would usually qualify as a pretty ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Norman Bates's Mother


The State of the Union Speech will be delivered tomorrow night…but the President will be able avoid talking about the state of our union (for the most part) given what is going on in Ukraine. Therefore, to a certain degree, ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: The Russia/Ukraine issue is not going away any time soon



Well, there is no question that the volatility that we’ve seen all year so far this year, has not gone away. We had another roller coaster ride yesterday…with a nice mid-afternoon rally…but that rally failed in the last hour of ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: S&P 500 at a key technical juncture.....NVDA earnings tonight.


The news that Russia had pulled some of its troops from the Ukraine border helped the stock market rally nicely yesterday. The vast majority of the advance for the S&P 500 came in the first fifteen minutes of trading…and its ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Have things gotten better...or worse...since late January?


The futures have bounced off their overnight lows on news that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov supports continue diplomatic efforts with the West on the issue of Ukraine. The futures on the S&P 500…which had traded lower by as much as ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: More upside for banks?.....Lindsey Jacobellis and persistence


As much as the market rallied nicely yesterday…and as much as it seems like the market has been rallying in almost a straight line for the last 2-3 weeks, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have actually been stuck in ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: PFE breaking support.....FB getting quite oversold.


For the second day in a row, the stock market sold-off late in the day. On Friday, the market had rallied nicely before the drop, so it still closed nicely higher on the day. However, yesterday, the drop took the ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The indexes rallied last week, but a lot of money was lost. That’s not good for the stock market.

2) The most important development from last week was the ECB’s surprising change ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Will Meta's (FB) Earnings Report Signal An Important Change In Thinking Among Investors?


It was a very interesting day in the stock market yesterday. It opened nicely higher after we got some very positive earnings news out of companies like GOOGL and AMD. However, the rise faded throughout the morning…and the S&P 500 ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place.


It was obviously another wild day yesterday…as the almost 3% decline in the S&P 500 index was completely erased by 3:00…and then it lost 40% of that bounce in the last hour of trading. The bounce looked like it was ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Ripe for a Short-Term Bounce Soon?


Wall Street has finally come around to the understanding that when the Fed told us they were going to shift from a policy of massive accommodation…to one of tightening…that also told us that their safety net had been moved lower ...

Read More
Comments