THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) If the S&P, Nasdaq & Russell can see meaningful breakouts, we’ll have to turn more constructive.

2) Despite the way it seems, the stock market rally has stalled-out.

3) There are signs that the drop in bond yields will end soon.

4) Even if inflation does not become a big problem, LT rates are going to rise.

5) The supply/demand equation is much more important…and its changing.

5a) Don’t listen to the Fed when they say the end of SMCCF is not a “taper” move.

6) European stocks are getting overbought and are now due for a “breather.”

7) What’s wrong with Taiwan Semiconductor?

8) Natural gas is getting overbought on a near-term basis.

9) The battle lines are well drawn for Bitcoin. (Is that important for other assets?)

10) Summary of our current stance.


1) There are many reasons to think that the stock market cannot rally a lot further from current levels. Several of which we’ll cover this weekend. However, with the S&P 500 Index closing at a new all-time highs and the yield on the U.S. 10-Year note breaking below the bottom end of its recent range, the outlooks for the stock market over the near-term looks quite rosy. Therefore, IF (repeat, IF) we see the S&P 500 index breakout in a more meaningful fashion…AND we see confirming breakouts in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000…we’ll have to turn much more constructive on the stock market for the summer.

The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high once again on Friday, so this is obviously a positive development. We’d also note that the Nasdaq Composite is only 0.5% away from its record high and the Russell 2000 is only 1% away. Of course the new high in the ...

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Morning Comment: Listen to what the Fed & Treasury Dept are telling us: Rates are going higher.



Friday’s weaker-than-expected employment report led to a good-sized drop in the yield on the U.S. 10-year note…which closed at 1.55%. It is bouncing slightly this morning up to almost 1.58%, but it is still within the sideways range we talked ...

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Morning Comment: No, it's not different this time.


Although the monthly employment report can sometimes create a big move in the marketplace, it certainly doesn’t always do that, so today could end up being a real yawner of a day. (If we don’t see much movement in the ...

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Morning Comment: Crude oil/energy stocks poised to breakout (again).



Sometimes the stock market closes at a much different level than the futures were indicating in the pre-market earlier that day. Thus, the fact that the futures are trading much higher this morning does not guarantee that we’ll have a ...

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Morning Comment: Bank stocks poised to make yet another


We had a pretty uneventful day in the stock market on Friday…as the market trading in a fairly tight range…on low volume and breadth that was not particularly compelling. The futures are trading higher this morning as we move into ...

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Morning Comment: Very important week for Bitcoin...and for Tesla.

Do you ever wonder what Elon Musk says to his friends in the evening? This is what he might have said late last week. “I’m bored. Since I’m not in the lime-light to the huge degree I was last weekend ...

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Morning Comment: Focusing on LT rates & the semis.....Will Bitcoin hold?

It’s amazing. The stock market got hit hard yesterday…and every bull on Wall Street tried to say that they saw it coming. (In other words, they said the same thing they always say when these moves take place.) That said, ...

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Morning Comment: If Inflation is Only Transitory, Default is the Only Outcome. (Thus it Won't be Transitory.)

Well, we sure are glad that we made fun of the NY Yankees a couple of weeks ago when we had the chance…because they are on a MAJOR roll…and we’re barely one month into the season. Thank God they came ...

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Morning Comment: Updating my view not the semis, the consumer staples and the Fed.


  • The consumer staples stocks have continued to perform in-line with the S&P 500 since early March. Investors should consider adding exposure to this sector…as it should provide upside (market-sized) returns if the broad market continues to rally going forward….AND provide ...
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Morning Comment: Charts on Bunds, European Banks, FB, AAPL, & STX


Well, there’s no question that there will be a lot of news today…so it will be interesting to see if any of it (or if all of it combined) will create a measurable move in the stock market. We get ...

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Morning Comment: Bitcoin...vulnerable to a drop to $41K?


The capital gains tax proposal that was put out by the Biden Administration knocked-down the stock market yesterday afternoon, but it was hardly a disaster. The decline came on breadth that was benign….and even though volume did increase, it was ...

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Morning Comment: Small-cap problems...Lumber is ripe for a decline (is that a problem for HD & LOW?)



The stock market took it on the chin again yesterday, but this week’s decline is still only a blip on the radar screen of the long-term picture of the stock market. Yes, volume did pick-up, so that’s a concern….but given ...

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