Morning Comment: A bullish development for banks???


We find it interesting that the stock futures are trading meaningfully higher this morning given that we cannot find any new-news on a fiscal deal. The S&P futures are basically signaling that they’ll claw back everything the S&P lost on Friday. That would indicate that the President’s Covid-19 will not have an impact on the election...and that the hopes that appeared about a fiscal deal last week will indeed come to fruition soon. We’re not convinced that either one of those assumptions are the right one, but the stock market seems to be able to look past a lot of negative intermediate concerns. If the market can assume that a fiscal plan will be passed eventually...and that we’ll get a vaccine eventually...and that a second wave of the virus will end eventually...maybe the stock market can rally enough over the next month to give Mr. Trump another surprising victory on Election Day.

Bond yields are moving a bit higher this morning...as the yield on the U.S. 10-year note has moved back above 0.7%. Of course, this is not a major rise in yields by any means, so we don’t want to make too much of this development. However, as we have highlighted several times in recent weeks, the Commitment of Traders (COT) data continues to show that the net long positions on the 10yr note for the dumb money “specs” remains quite high. So if/when they begin to unwind those positions, the price on that bond will fall...and yields will rise further. (On top of this, as we highlighted in our weekend piece this weekend, we’ve seen an interesting increase in options activity in the TLT...that is betting on higher rates between now and December.)

If (repeat, IF) long-term interest rates DO continue to rise...and the rise becomes more ...

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Morning Comment: October...deja vu all-over again...or not???


  • October in NE: Colors, Red Sox, Tom Brady...Wait, what?
  • September corrections usually bottom in October.
  • Chip stocks are a great leading indicator...and they're rising.
  • But so are the truckers...and they're falling.


October in New England: Colors, Red Sox, Tom Brady...Wait, ...

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Morning Comment: Follow the Dollar


  • Things are only going to get uglier in the Presidential campaign.
  • Trump is actually winning the “expectations game” for the debate.
  • Pelosi’s comments & the dollar are helping the market bounce this morning.
  • The dollar is overbought near-term, but still ...
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Morning Comment: Watch the chip stocks for guidance


Wow, another wild day in the stock market yesterday. A 1.5% rally off the initial lows was followed by a 1% decline into late-morning. That, in turn, was followed by a 1.7% rally into mid-afternoon...which was then followed by another ...

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Morning Comment: European Banks Testing Critical Support Level


We saw a nice bounce in the stock market yesterday, but the trend on the “internals” on the market continues to be the same that it has been since the beginning of the month. In other words, “internals” continue to ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY T0P 10


Table of Contents:

1) The stock market was (and is still) ripe for a further decline...no matter what the Fed said this week.

2) However, the Fed’s actions of the past decade HAVE put us in ...

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Morning Comment: DON'T BLAME THE FED for today's weakness!


We’ll start by saying that if it turns out be true that President Trump played a large role in getting the Big 10 to reinstate their football season, the election in over! Given how important college football is to the ...

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Morning Comment.....FDX: GREAT quarter, but VERY overbought....Stewart Cink.



The stock market gave back some of its midday gains late in the afternoon yesterday...after APPL slipped well off of its highs for the day and the dollar bounced back into positive territory for the day. However the stock market ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The “artificial” moves actually started in Q4 of last year (after the repo debacle).

2) When the market reaches the kinds of extremes it did in Aug, it takes time to work ...

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Morning Comment: Too early to "buy on weakness"



  • The "internals" during yesterday's rally were mediocre.
  • The call buying in AAPL was huge yesterday, so very little froth has been wrung out of the market. (Many mega-cap tech stocks are still quite overbought on an intermediate-term basis.)
  • It's usually ...
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Morning Comment: Watch Friday's intraday lows, they're KEY support


The U.S. futures are trading significantly lower this morning as the tech stocks (especially the mega-cap tech names) are under pressure once again. Our stance on this situation is a lot different than most. Many people are saying that it’s ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The sell-off in the stock market likely has more room to run.

2) An explanation of what has taken place in the options market this summer.

3) We’ll need more downside follow-through ...

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