Morning Comment: Bullish "internals" this week.


We got more evidence yesterday that this week’s “breather” in the stock market will be followed by a further rally into the election. We’ll still have to watch the action in the market for a couple of more trading days, but the “internals” of the market during the three day decline we’ve just experienced have been pretty good. First of all, the market was able to retrace almost all of its morning losses by the close yesterday...and the breadth for all the major averages was actually positive (even for the Nasdaq...which fell by almost half of one percent). In fact, the breadth was not very bad at all over the previous two days, so yesterday’s positive breadth was bullish. On top of this, the average daily volume over the past three days has been just 2.6bn shares for the composite volume...so you can see that the selling intensity has been very mild.

This kind of action is exactly what you normally see when a pull-back in the market is just a very-short-term phenomenon in a stock market that is headed higher over the following weeks. We’re not quite ready to send up an “all-clear” signal, but if the market can bounce-back over the next few trading days, it’s going to confirm that this week’s pull-back was merely something that was working off the very-short-term overbought condition that had developed at the beginning of the week.

Another item from yesterday that gives us more confidence in a bullish outcome to this short-term situation was the action in the chip stocks yesterday. The SMH semiconductor ETF opened 2.3% lower at the beginning of trading, but that was its lows for the day. It was able to bounce 1.75% off of those opening lows and limit the decline to a paltry 0.39% on ...

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Morning Comment: Keep Watching the Dollar


We had been expecting a pull-back in the stock market after its nice two-week rally, so the decline in the market yesterday was not a surprise. In fact, it can be seen as normal and healthy. Of course, if the ...

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Morning Comment: NY Sports Teams Have Become Irrelevant (and that's not good).


It should be a quiet day today...as the bond market is closed for Columbus Day (or whatever the call it now)...and a lot of market participants (both bond & stock market players) have taken a three-day weekend. To be honest, ...

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Morning Comment: Next Week Will Be Very Important For The Stock Market


Our apologies for not publishing yesterday, we had a power outage and it took quite a long time to get back up and running yesterday. Anyway, our feeling is that the only thing that will really be remembered from the ...

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Morning Comment: Bank stocks and the yield curve


The stock market rallied nicely yesterday...and although talk of a fiscal deal out of Washington and news that President Trump was leaving the hospital got a lot of the credit for the advance...we believe the falling odds of a contested ...

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Morning Comment: A bullish development for banks???


We find it interesting that the stock futures are trading meaningfully higher this morning given that we cannot find any new-news on a fiscal deal. The S&P futures are basically signaling that they’ll claw back everything the S&P lost on ...

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Morning Comment: October...deja vu all-over again...or not???


  • October in NE: Colors, Red Sox, Tom Brady...Wait, what?
  • September corrections usually bottom in October.
  • Chip stocks are a great leading indicator...and they're rising.
  • But so are the truckers...and they're falling.


October in New England: Colors, Red Sox, Tom Brady...Wait, ...

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Morning Comment: Follow the Dollar


  • Things are only going to get uglier in the Presidential campaign.
  • Trump is actually winning the “expectations game” for the debate.
  • Pelosi’s comments & the dollar are helping the market bounce this morning.
  • The dollar is overbought near-term, but still ...
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Morning Comment: Watch the chip stocks for guidance


Wow, another wild day in the stock market yesterday. A 1.5% rally off the initial lows was followed by a 1% decline into late-morning. That, in turn, was followed by a 1.7% rally into mid-afternoon...which was then followed by another ...

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Morning Comment: European Banks Testing Critical Support Level


We saw a nice bounce in the stock market yesterday, but the trend on the “internals” on the market continues to be the same that it has been since the beginning of the month. In other words, “internals” continue to ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY T0P 10


Table of Contents:

1) The stock market was (and is still) ripe for a further decline...no matter what the Fed said this week.

2) However, the Fed’s actions of the past decade HAVE put us in ...

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Morning Comment: DON'T BLAME THE FED for today's weakness!


We’ll start by saying that if it turns out be true that President Trump played a large role in getting the Big 10 to reinstate their football season, the election in over! Given how important college football is to the ...

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