It is said that above all else, the stock market hates uncertainty. So, when one surveys the current landscape, it becomes clear why stocks have essentially been moving sideways for the past two months (with some arguing that this number should be four and one-half).

The bottom line is that there are great many things for traders to fret about at the present time. And while most are not new, it can sometimes help to identify the key concerns.

First and foremost on the list of worries is oil. While some argue whether oil will be a net positive for the U.S. consumer over time, most analysts now agree that the crash in oil prices is a problem - potentially a big problem - from a global macroeconomic perspective.

U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) - Weekly

View Larger Image

The biggest concern is that the massive decline isn't just computer trading algo's gone wild, but a reflection of demand, and in turn, an indication that growth is slowing in the big picture.

It is for this reason that most days recently traders have tied their trading to the price of oil. If the macro view is indeed under pressure, then the price of oil is a good leading indicator of what to expect in the future. So, as silly as it seems, oil may hold the future to the next important move in the stock market.

The good news is that it does appear oil is attempting to put in a base from a short-term perspective.

U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) - Daily

View Larger Image

The bad news is that oil has tried to base/bottom out on four prior occasions since September. Therefore, while stock traders may turn their focus on other issues in the near-term, keeping an eye on the current base attempt in the USO is advised.

Other Causes of Uncertainty

To be sure, oil has been the primary focus of stock trading in 2015. However, in the near-term, there are several other "issues" that could act as a shiny object to A.D.D.-inflicted stock traders. So, let's run them down.

To QE or Not to QE

To repeat, none of the current worries in the stock market are new. Yet at the same time, any of the issues facing traders today can become THE focal point - at any given time.

With the ECB meeting scheduled for tomorrow, the question of "Will they or won't they?" could take center stage. The bottom line here is fairly straightforward as Super Mario has been leading the market to believe that a large-scale, sovereign bond buying program (aka Sovereign QE) will be launched in the near-term.

The problem is that Germany continues to push back against the plan. Just today, German Chancellor Merkel stated that the ECB hasn't yet made a decision on QE and that she doesn't want to see anything damage the economic reforms that have been put in place over the past three years.

There is also talk that the program could be "watered down" and as such, become a disappointment.

The key here is to be at your desk bright and early tomorrow to see whether or not the ECB actually implements a QE plan or merely continues talk about it.

Greece (Yes, Again)

Frankly, if I never write another word about Greece and/or Greek politics, it would be just fine with me. But, the key is that there is an election coming up and the question of whether or not Greece will stay in the Eurozone is on the line.

While the rhetoric from the leading party has been about Greece's desire to uphold the country's commitments and to stay in the EU, the uncertainty over what could happen next continues to be an overhang.

Is the Worm Turning?

The bulls argue that the fundamentals for the stock market remain strong and that the economy is starting to accelerate. However, the vast majority of economic data has come in below expectations of late. Not surprisingly, this has been met with the contention that the economy may be succumbing to the #GrowthSlowing concept. And to hear the bears tell it, this is an ominous sign.

And of Course, Earnings

And finally there is the earnings parade. The bottom line here is that this quarter's reporting season is off to a sluggish start. As such, our furry friends in the bear camp continue to yammer on about the ill effects of crude's rude move and the slowdown occurring in places like Europe and China.

Where Does This Leave Us?

In sum, the current bout of uncertainty has left the stock market in a state of flux and treading water. One look at the chart below really tells the whole story as it appears that investors are uncertain about which way the current consolidation pattern will eventually break.

S&P 500 - Daily

View Larger Image

So, if analysis of the global macro environment is not your bag, it might be best to simply wait and see which way the current "wedge formation" breaks. A meaningful beak of the lower bound, which includes the 150-day and the current uptrend would undoubtedly bring in technical selling. Whereas, a move above 2040-50 could cause the bulls to become more confident. However, it is important to note that the bulls would need to move to a new high in order for any upside move from here to be taken seriously.

So there you have it. Stocks hate uncertainty and there is plenty to be uncertain about at the present time. As such, the action in the coming days should be quite telling.

Turning To This Morning

It's all about oil, the ECB, and China this morning. The good news is that after another bad day yesterday, crude prices are stabilizing this morning. However, it is probably still a good idea to not let the current line in the sand out of your sight. On the ECB front, the big day is tomorrow as all eyes will be on Mario Draghi and his merry band of central bankers. There has been a great deal of discussion about what to expect/not to expect out of this meeting, so the result could easily move markets. In China, stocks rallied strongly after regulators talked nice and suggested they were not, in fact, trying to "talk stocks lower" on Monday (the Shanghai index plunged -7.7% during Monday's session). Finally, while stock futures have not been a good guide to the day's session of late, the early action points to a modest pullback at the open on Wall Street.

Pre-Game Indicators

Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: -0.50%
    Hong Kong: +1.68%
    Shanghai: +4.76%
    London: +0.54%
    Germany: -0.69%
    France: -0.56%
    Italy: -0.18%
    Spain: -0.57%

Crude Oil Futures: +0.24 to $46.71

Gold: +$8.30 at $1302.50

Dollar: lower against the yen, higher against the euro and pound

10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 1.798%

Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: -2.65
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: -42
    NASDAQ Composite: -4.26

Thought For The Day:

Do not let the shadows of your past darken the doorstep of your future. Forgive and forget. -Author Unkown

Looking For Guidance in the Markets?

The Daily Decision: If you want a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis - Check the "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. Investors first need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets. The Daily Decision system was up 30.3% in 2012, is up more than 25% in 2013, and the system sports an average compound rate of return of more than 30% per year.

The Insiders Portfolio: If you are looking for a truly unique approach to stock picking - Check out The Insiders Portfolio. We buy what those who know their company's best are buying - but ONLY when they are buying heavily! P.S. The Insiders is up over 30% in 2013 and has nearly doubled the S&P 500 since 2009.

The IRA/401K Advisor: Stop ignoring your 401K! Our long-term oriented service designed for IRAs and 401Ks strives to keep accounts positioned on the right side of the markets. This is a service you really can't afford not to use.

All StateoftheMarkets.com Premium Services include a 30-day money-back guarantee!

Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

David D. Moenning
Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
StateoftheMarkets.com
President, Heritage Capital Research
Check Out the NEW Website!

Positions in stocks mentioned: none

For up to the minute updates on the market's driving forces, Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

Free Research From StateoftheMarkets.com:

Remember, you can receive email alerts for more than 20 free research report alerts from StateoftheMarkets.com including:

• State's Chart of the Day - Eeach day we highlight a top rated stock with a positive technical setup
• The Risk Manager Report - Stay in tune with the market's risk/reward environment
• The “10.0” Report - These are the REAL best-of-breed companies
• The Insiders Report - See what the people who know their company's best are buying
• ETF Leaders Report - Looking for the top performing ETF's? You've come to the right place.
• The SOTM 100 Portfolio - The top rated stocks in each market sector
• State's Market Models - Each week we quantify the "state of the market" with a series of models
• The Focus List - Think of the focus list as your own private research department. We do all the work and highlight our top picks each trading day

Our Mission Statement:

At StateoftheMarkets.com, our goal is to provide everything you need to be a more successful investor: The must-read headlines, market commentary, market research, stock analysis, proprietary risk management models, and most importantly – actionable portfolios with live trade alerts.

Finally, we are here to help - so don't hesitate to call with questions, comments, or ideas at 1-877-440-9464.

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.