The Daily Decision for 10.17.16
The Early Take on the Market:
With Janet Yellen saying Friday that the Federal Reserve may be prepared to accept inflation running a bit hot for a while in order to try and create a more emphatic economic recovery, the dollar and interest rates have once again become the center of attention. And as we enter a fresh week, bond prices/interest rates are continuing to attract a lot of attention. For example, yields in Germany climbed to their highest level since June on Monday and yields on U.K. gilts rose to the highest level seen since the BREXIT vote. As such, futures in the U.S. point to a soft open on Wall Street and our view that some caution remains warranted is still intact. However, with the seasonal winds expected to shift from headwinds to tailwinds in the next couple of weeks, we are on the lookout for opportunities.
Have a great Day!
The Daily Decision Model:
About: The Daily Decision Model is a professional, disciplined approach to managing the risk of the U.S. stock market. One decision. Once a day. Done.
Current Daily Decision Position:
58% Long (19.5% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
Today's Early Model Reading*:
69% Long (23% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
*Today's Model Reading represents the "early read" of our models. Please note that model readings often change during the trading session and we will always send a trade alert when we are making changes to positions.
New to the Daily Decisions?
Our current "New Member Rating" is:
Buy
Additional Daily Decision Trading Models/Systems:
In an effort to provide additional research and trading guidance for a wide variety of members, the daily readings of 5 additional trading systems are provided.
How To Use: To clarify, the Main Model is the primary model for the Daily Decision service. However, members can use any or all of the systems below to customize their approach or to focus on a specific style of trading or time-frame.
The Timing Models (Short/Intermediate-Term):
About: Shorter-term "timing models" designed to stay on the correct side of the market's trends.
Today's Positions:
DD Hybrid Model: 50% Long (16.67% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
DD Aggressive Model: 50% Long (16.67% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
Note: In order to avoid confusion, the Hybrid and Aggressive Models will no longer be updated in the Marketfy. This change will be effective 9.26.16.
The Mean Reversion Model (Short-Term):
About: Designed for shorter-term traders, this model indicates when conditions are ripe for the market to "go the other way" from the current trend.
Today's Position:
66% Long (22% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
The Graduated Exposure System (Intermediate-Term):
About: Designed to keep overall exposure to market risk in line with the intermediate-term"state of the market environment.
Today's Position:
40% Long (13.33% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
The "Desert Island" System (Long-Term):
About: A long-term system designed to tell us which team is in control of the game. The primary objective of this model is to avoid high risk, bear market environments.
Today's Position:
100% Long (33.34% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
Current Market Environment Model Reading:
The Market Environment Model is designed to indicate the current "state of the market" in terms of technical health and the market's internal strength. To clarify, this is NOT a trading system. We use the model to help us identify the proper trading strategy to use in a given environment.
Daily Decision Performance:
Below is a summary of the live and backtested returns of strategies provided in the Daily Decisions service.
Before we ever invest our hard earned capital in a market strategy, we believe it is important to thoroughly test the system in different market environments. While all system tests have flaws, the idea is that a backtest can provide us with (1) proof of concept and (2) an indication of what we might be able to expect from the system in different market environments. And from a longer-term standpoint, we are pleased with the way the systems perform in most market environments.
| The Daily Decision Systems Performance Results (Updated Weekly on Mondays) | ||||||||
Period |
The Daily Decision Model(1) |
DD Timing Hybrid Model(2) |
DD Timing Aggressive Model(2) |
Graduated Exposure Model(3) |
Desert Island Model(3) |
Mean Reversion Model(4) | S&P 500 Index | |
| 1997 | +42.85% | +46.08% | +97.09% | +43.36% | +40.39% | +31.01% | ||
| 1998 | +51.12% | +85.70% | +170.47% | +41.31% | +38.08% | +26.67% | ||
| 1999 | +17.91% | +32.36% | +70.39% | +8.22% | +17.35% | +19.53% | ||
| 2000 | +6.51% | +30.93% | +63.29% | -5.92% | +2.13% | -10.14% | ||
| 2001 | +21.74% | +30.64% | +64.94% | +14.02% | +22.93% | -13.04% | ||
| 2002 | +13.87% | +21.52% | +40.48% | +14.45% | +8.59% | -23.37% | ||
| 2003 | +48.80% | +56.23% | +104.53% | +28.30% | +62.09% | +26.38% | ||
| 2004 | +15.40% | +11.81% | +26.86% | +9.20% | +23.08% | +8.99% | ||
| 2005 | +5.74% | +5.71% | +7.26% | +3.62% | +7.62% | +3.00% | ||
| 2006 | +18.89% | +26.10% | +47.43% | +5.55% | +26.05% | +13.62% | ||
| 2007 | +15.67% | +23.91% | +46.63% | +3.30% | +21.35% | +3.53% | ||
| 2008 | +50.06% | +44.62% | +92.78% | +15.29% | +21.35% | -38.49% | ||
| 2009 | +66.50% | +204.78% | +161.00% | +47.77% | +70.84% | +23.45% | ||
| 2010 | +30.37% | +33.43% | +61.20% | +26.32% | +27.32% | +12.78% | ||
| 2011 | +20.47% | -7.42% | -26.80% | +3.38% | +21.45% | -0.00% | ||
| 2012 | +27.83% | +8.14% | +16.47% | +20.33% | +29.58% | +13.41% | ||
| 2013 | +36.38% | +27.27% | +44.34% | +37.28% | +38.45% | +29.60% | ||
| 2014 | +11.19% | +3.54% | -1.14% | +7.43% | +16.83% | +11.93% | ||
| 2015 | -4.79% | -12.70% | -16.00% | -3.04% | -1.37% | -0.73% | ||
| 2016 | +0.81% | +1.24% | +1.22% | +2.08% | -0.57% | +4.26% | +4.36% | |
| Compound Average Annual Return: (1997 - 2015) | +24.68% Per Year |
+27.62% Per Year |
+50.25% Per Year |
+15.83% Per Year |
+30.20% Per Year |
NA Per Year |
+5.45% Per Year | |
| (1) The Daily Decision Model ("Main Model") Components: 40% Desert Island System, 35% Graduated Exposure System, 25% DD Hybrid Trading System. Live Returns from December 2015 forward, backtested results prior | ||||||||
| (2) Live Returns from January 2009 forward, backtested results prior | ||||||||
| (3) Live Returns from January 2015 forward, backtested results prior | ||||||||
| (4) Live Returns from January 2015 forward | ||||||||
Is Your IRA Prepared for the Next Bear Market?
Check Out HCR's Long-Term Risk Manager System
Primary Goal: Avoid Bear Markets!
Perfect for IRA's!
Daily Decision Links:
Posted to Daily Decisions Service on Oct 17, 2016 — 9:10 AM
Recent free content from FrontRange Trading Co.
-
The Lines In The Sand Are Clear
— 9/16/20
-
The Question of the Day
— 8/04/20
-
Portfolio Update: 1.23.20
— 1/23/20
-
State of the Markets: Modeling 2020 Expectations (Just For Fun)
— 1/13/20
-
Current Holdings for ALL-NEW 2020 Daily Decision Model Portfolio
— 1/03/20
- 1 Campus Martius, Suite #200Detroit, MI 48226
- +1 877 440 9464
