What Do The Cycles Say About 2017?

Call it the "Trump Trade," the "Trump Bump," the "reflation allocation," or whatever you'd like, but since November 9th, it is safe to say that traders have been looking ahead to better days. And by now, everyone knows the bullet points of the bull argument which include lower taxes, less regulation, and better economic growth. According to our heroes in horns, all of the above are expected to result in higher profits for corporate America. Which, of course is expected to be a good thing for stock prices.

But if I've learned anything in my 30+ years as a money manager, it is that when a theme becomes too widely accepted - particularly when it comes to predicting the future of the stock market - things don't always go according to plan.

So, my thinking is that at some point, what I've been referring to as "economic reality" needs to actually materialize and morph into upside surprises during an earnings parade in the not-too distant future. As such, our furry friends in the bear camp are quick to remind us that the bulls could be at risk if there are any hiccups or false starts along the way.

I will opine that this concern is at least partially responsible for the current sideways action taking place in the major indices. Well, outside the NASDAQ, which seems to be marching to the beat of a different drummer lately, that is.

So, is it over? Has the "Trump Bump" run its course? Will traders now wait for policies to be announced? Or will the animal spirits take over soon and allow the bulls to continue their recent run for roses?

While pondering these and other questions, I decided to take a look at what the historical cycles might have to ...

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Alts Are Really Alternatives To...

With the market continuing to trade sideways in a very tight range, this looks to be as good a time as any to finish up our review of alternative investing strategies and how they should be employed in one's ...

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The Daily Decision Trading Update for 1.17.17 - Looking for Opportunities


The Early Take on the Market:
Despite the headlines touting the NASDAQ's march to new highs on a daily basis, it is important to note that the rest of the major indices are currently stuck in a sideways trading ...

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Some Weakness Creeping Into The Indicators

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. After a whirlwind weekend of planes, trains, and automobiles in the Midwest - where we spent the majority of the time successfully dodging ice storms (still can't believe ...

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Alternatives As a Bear Market Protection Plan

While the NASDAQ index has continued to march higher in recent days and closed at another new all-time high yesterday, the rest of the major indices appear to remain stuck in a sideways trading range. And with the earnings parade ...

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Understanding Alternatives - The Numbers

Stocks appear to be waffling a bit lower in the early going this morning with most of the focus on the happenings in Washington. And with traders waiting for the earnings parade to begin, this appears to be a good ...

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Alternatives: Exploration of Investing's Final Frontier

With stocks appearing to be entrenched in yet another consolidation phase, I thought it might be good to spend our time together this morning exploring one of the great debates in the financial services business at this time - alternative investments ...

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The Daily Decision Trading Update for 1.9.17 - Making Decisions


The Early Take on the Market:
Good Monday morning and welcome back to the game. So far at least, stocks appear to be following the script for the start to a new calendar year. The age-old Wall Street adages tell ...

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Time To Sit Up And Take Notice?

Good Monday morning and welcome back! Stocks have begun the new calendar year following the traditional script with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ finishing the week at fresh all-time highs. However, the DJIA can't seem to muster the energy ...

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Daily Decision Trading Update for 12.5.16 - Adding Exposure


The Early Take on the Market:
It appears that stocks are following the traditional holiday pattern as the market tends to take a little break a few days before Christmas only to continue the year-end rally the following week. The ...

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Daily Decision Trading Update for 12.19.16


The Early Take on the Market:
With the number of trading days left in calendar year 2016 dwindling fast, the question of the day is if the post-election melt-up will continue or if traders will decide to do some profit-taking ...

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Daily Decision Trading Update for 12.16.16


The Early Take on the Market:
The U.S. Dollar, Fed policy, options expiration, and Russia are the focal points on this third Friday in December. Don't look now fans, but "King Dollar" has resumed its charge higher since ...

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