The Trump (Speed) Bump

The "Trump Rally" hit what many pundits are calling a "speed bump" yesterday. While a pullback has been expected by just about everyone in the game, the speed at which the vehicle hit the bump still managed to send passengers flying in all directions. The Dow fell more than 235 points, notching the first 1% decline since October 11. And in short, the market experienced the worst day of calendar year 2017 so far.

Although there were several issues in play yesterday, at the forefront was the worry that the pro-growth/business policies of the Trump administration could get sidetracked by politics in Washington.

If you will recall, the primary driver of the "Trump Bump," which has carried the S&P 500 up nearly 15% from the November low through March 1, has been the expectation that Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress would focus on tax reform, cutting regulations, and stimulating the economy.

However, as I've written a time or two, at some point, the expectations of better days ahead would need to become economic reality and any "bumps in the road" could become problematic for stock market bulls if the policies were delayed. And the bottom line is this is exactly what traders and their computers were fretting about yesterday.

The immediate fear is that House Republicans may not be able to gather the votes they need this week to dismantle Obamacare. The "repeal and replace" process is slated to begin on Thursday but talk of infighting within the GOP about the makeup of the bill is causing consternation.

The problem is that Republicans have put the elimination of the Affordable Care Act in front of the pro-growth items on the Trump agenda such as tax reform and stimulus spending plans. Cutting to the chase, this means that tax ...

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The Bond Market Is Doing What?

To hear former PIMCO Bond King Bill Gross tell it, bonds have reversed a 35-year bullish trend and have now entered a bear market. This massive bear will purportedly last many years and wipe out tens of trillions of investor ...

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The Daily Decision for 3.20.17 - Watching Oil and the Dollar


The Early Take on the Market:
Oil, free trade, and BREXIT are the focal points of the markets on this first day of spring, 2017. Oil prices are falling again this morning as rising U.S. drilling activity has traders ...

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The Message From the Indicators Is...

Good Monday morning and welcome back. While spring break season is underway and you may be more focused on getting to the beach or working on your short game, let's start the week with a review my key market ...

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The Daily Decision for 3.17.17 - Sideways Is The New...


The Early Take on the Market:
There is a fair amount of activity in the early going on this St. Patty's day. To start, there is the latest out of Washington which includes Trump's meeting with Angela Merkel ...

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"The Simple Message Is..."

Parsing the words of central bankers once required one to learn the equivalent of a foreign language and was considered an art form. Back in the day, one had to learn how to interpret the words used by Alan Greenspan ...

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Lines In The Sand

Here we go again - Fed Day, March 2017. While this is but the first of several central bank meetings this week - the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank are also slated to meet - the ...

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While We Wait...

While we wait on this week's big events, which include the FOMC announcement and Janet Yellen press conference Wednesday afternoon, the election results in the Netherlands, meetings of the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss ...

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The Daily Decision Trading Update for 3.13.17


The Early Take on the Market:
To be sure, this week's meeting of Janet Yellen and her merry band of central bankers will be the focal point for the markets. In case you've been sleeping under a rock ...

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The Next Act In The Play...

Good Monday morning and welcome back. To be sure, this week's meeting of Janet Yellen and her merry band of central bankers will be the focal point for the markets. In case you've been sleeping under a rock ...

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The Daily Decision Trading Update for 3.9.17 - Happy 8th Bday Mr. Bull


The Early Take on the Market:
The 8th anniversary of the beginning of the secular bull market in stocks, the ECB, rates in the U.S. and of course, oil are the focal points in the market today. Believe it ...

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Happy Birthday!

Don't look now fans, but the current secular bull market in stocks turns 8 years old today. Yep, that's right; 8 years ago, today, Jamie Dimon stepped to the microphone on the White House lawn and reminded everyone ...

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