The Daily Decision Trading Update for 2.17.17 -- *** UPGRADE COMING NEXT WEEK! ***

*** NEW: UPGRADED LEVERAGE STRATEGY COMING NEXT WEEK ***
We are pleased to announce that will be implementing a "leverage trigger" for the CORE EXPOSURE model. When the indicators suggest the market is "in gear" and trending higher, the leverage trigger will effectively be switched to the "on" position. This means that when the leverage trigger is "on," the exposure level for the CORE model will be a percentage of 200% long (and when the leverage trigger is "off" the exposure will be a percentage of 100% long).

For example, if the exposure level is 55% and the leverage trigger was "on," the exposure for the day would be 110% long. The overall goal is to produce higher returns in our CORE EXPOSURE approach during positive market environments.


The Early Take on the Market:
The focal point in the markets this morning appears to be the potential for tax reform and some new developments in the French election. As far as the "Trump Bump" is concerned, there can be no denying that the current rally has run a long way in a very short period of time. For example, stocks have put in the equivalent of an above-average calendar-year return on the S&P 500 in a little over three months. In short, this is what an overbought condition looks like. So, with a long weekend ahead, traders may be reassessing both the probability and perhaps more importantly, the timing of the "massive" tax plan currently being hatched by the White House. The latest development here is yesterday's comment that health care must be dealt with before tax reform. As such, traders may decide to take a step back from the frenetic pace of buying seen over the past couple weeks. Across the pond, there is a new twist in the French ...

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The Real Inflation Problem

Stocks spiked again on Wednesday with the S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ Composite, S&P Midcap, and Russell 2000 indices all finishing at new all-time highs. Once again, investors can thank Mr. Trump for the increased value of their brokerage accounts and ...

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The Daily Decision Trading Update for 2.15.17 - Enjoying the Ride


The Early Take on the Market:
The inflation data is in focus this morning. After yesterday's monthly PPI headline came in above expectations, increasing by the most since 2012, today's CPI followed suit. The Labor Dept reported this ...

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Odd Behavior? Or...

It is a well-known fact that Janet Yellen is an uber-dove when it comes to interest rates. For those not schooled in the world of Fedspeak, the term "dove" means that the central banker in question errs on the side ...

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When Will It End?

With major stock indices finishing at new all-time highs for a third consecutive session, the question of the day would appear to be, when will it end?

The tenacious rally that began just before the November election, has now lifted ...

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The Daily Decision Trading Update for 2.13.17


The Early Take on the Market:
Oil demand, foreign selling of U.S. Treasury bonds, the charts of stock market indices and Janet Yellen's upcoming testimony appear to be the focal points in the early going on this fine ...

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Green Means Go, Right?

Good Monday morning and welcome back. Apparently all it took was one utterance of the word "phenomenal" by Mr. Trump in order to remind traders that tax reform hasn't been forgotten and that the plan is likely to be ...

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The Bears Tell Us...

One of the big questions at this point in the game is, can stocks really go higher from here? After all, the S&P 500 is up 10% from the pre-election low and the NASDAQ Composite has added 12.6% since ...

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An Old-School Indicator That Bears Watching - Even Today

I recently wrote a position paper entitled The Tactical Dilemma which explored the trials and tribulations that tactical managers have faced since 2011. In the report, I detailed the fact that many tried and true technical indicators, which had performed ...

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Where I Stand - Clarifying My Position

I've been saying for a while now that from a big-picture perspective, this is not a low-risk environment. Today I thought I would do some "esplainin" on my point of view.

First, let's dispel the idea that my ...

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The Daily Decision Trading Update for 2.6.17 -- On the Hunt


The Early Take on the Market:
The comeback, the immigration situation, the French election, and Germany's economic data are in focus on this fine Monday morning. First, love 'em or hate 'em, you have to respect the biggest comeback ...

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Bull Starting to Show Some Wear and Tear

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. My guess is that after the big game - and what a game it was - the last thing anyone is thinking about is a bunch of market models and ...

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