Near Term - It's All About The Headlines. Longer-Term - It's About...

A busy few days of entertaining family in Colorado provided a reprieve from the keyboard and the markets over the weekend. Thus, I'm going to let the indicators do most of the talking to start this holiday-shortened week.

Briefly, the question of the day in my mind continues to be whether or not we've seen "THE" bottom of the current corrective phase. Frankly, I can argue both sides of the issue. But the key in the near-term is the fact that we've got a news-driven market on our hands.

At the risk of being labeled Captain Obvious, the two-pronged worries of a potential Fed "overshoot" (defined as the Fed going too far, with rate hikes eventually becoming a drag on the economy) and a prolonged trade war (where the leaders of the world's two largest economies become stubborn and wind up damaging global growth in the process) are the driving factors. Therefore, my guess is that headlines on either issue are likely to determine the direction of the next short-term trend.

Looking at the bigger picture, the issues of slowing global growth and the corresponding multiple investors are willing to place on an earnings stream that could very well wind up being below expectations hold the key to the next intermediate-term trend.

The good news is we've entered a strong seasonal period. For example, after this week, our cycle work projects a rally into the end of the year. And if memory serves, the stock market has never declined in the November-December period following the mid-term elections. Thus, the bulls like their odds here.

On the other side of the field, our furry friends point to the fact that a global recession is underway, most global markets are in "bear market territory," both rates and ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 11.19.18 - Near-Term: It's All About The Headlines. Longer-Term: It's About...


The State of the Markets:

A busy few days of entertaining family in Colorado provided a reprieve from the keyboard and the markets over the weekend. Thus, I'm going to let the indicators do most of the talking to ...

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The Straws Breaking The Market's Back

Monday was another volatile day on Wall Street as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 602 points. Granted, problems at Apple (AAPL) and Goldman Sachs (GS) accounted for 170 of those points. And yes, the machines were clearly at work ...

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Understanding the Current Earnings Game

When stocks enter a corrective phase, the main question investors tend to ask themselves is, has anything changed from a macro point of view?

One of the problems with trying to answer this question is that corrections generally are born ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 11.12.18 - Understanding the Current Earnings Game


The State of the Markets:

When stocks enter a corrective phase, the main question investors tend to ask themselves is, has anything changed from a macro point of view?

One of the problems with trying to answer this question is ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 11.9.18 - Portfolio Update


Today's Portfolio Review

Despite the recent "bounce," we continue to maintain a modestly defensive position (net long exposure currently stands at 89% and each of the strategies holds some cash) at this time. The reason is simple. Historically, when ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 11.5.18 - Garden-Variety So Far, But...


The State of the Markets:

I've got an early meeting (who's idea was it to schedule a board meeting for 7:00am on a Monday??) and I am traveling the rest of the week, so I'm up ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 11.2.18 - Of Jobs, Apple, and Trade


Portfolio Strategy Update:

As long-time members know, we don't spend a lot of time (almost none, actually) touting our views on the market or making "calls" about what to expect next. In our more than 40-years of combined market ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.30.18 - Two Ways To Improve The Mood


The State of the Markets:

There can be no denying that we've got a nasty market on our hands. A market where the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average can be up 300 points one moment and down 600 the ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.29.18 - How Low Can It Go?


The State of the Markets:

Are we having fun yet? To be sure, the recent stock market correction has created some angst as the bears have knocked -7.55% off the DJIA, -9.63% off the S&P 500, -12.60 ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.22.18 - Sifting Through The Conflicting Evidence


The State of the Markets:

From my seat, the most important question on this fine Monday morning is if stocks are currently in the "retest" stage of a waterfall decline, which means that we are likely closer to the end ...

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The NEW Daily Decision - Checking The Playbook


The State of the Markets:

My guess is that after Wednesday's action, everyone is feeling a little better about the state of the stock market. While the bears and their algos mounted another series of attacks yesterday, good prevailed ...

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