A busy few days of entertaining family in Colorado provided a reprieve from the keyboard and the markets over the weekend. Thus, I'm going to let the indicators do most of the talking to start this holiday-shortened week.
Briefly, the question of the day in my mind continues to be whether or not we've seen "THE" bottom of the current corrective phase. Frankly, I can argue both sides of the issue. But the key in the near-term is the fact that we've got a news-driven market on our hands.
At the risk of being labeled Captain Obvious, the two-pronged worries of a potential Fed "overshoot" (defined as the Fed going too far, with rate hikes eventually becoming a drag on the economy) and a prolonged trade war (where the leaders of the world's two largest economies become stubborn and wind up damaging global growth in the process) are the driving factors. Therefore, my guess is that headlines on either issue are likely to determine the direction of the next short-term trend.
Looking at the bigger picture, the issues of slowing global growth and the corresponding multiple investors are willing to place on an earnings stream that could very well wind up being below expectations hold the key to the next intermediate-term trend.
The good news is we've entered a strong seasonal period. For example, after this week, our cycle work projects a rally into the end of the year. And if memory serves, the stock market has never declined in the November-December period following the mid-term elections. Thus, the bulls like their odds here.
On the other side of the field, our furry friends point to the fact that a global recession is underway, most global markets are in "bear market territory," both rates and ...