The Daily Decision for 5.22.17

Publishing Note: My life is complicated for the next two weeks (my wife and I are moving into a temporary spot waiting for the new home to be completed). Thus we will publish Daily Updates as my schedule permits. However, as usual, we will publish TRADE ALERTS before any adjustments are made to the portfolio.


The Early Take on the Market:
The President's first foreign trip couldn't have come at a better time given the ongoing news cycle issues relating to Russia, etc. Instead of focusing on who said what to whom and when, the news today is all about arms deals and yet another attempt to create peace in the Middle East. Oil is also in the news this morning as talk of extending the current production cuts for another nine months has allowed crude to rebound sharply from recent lows. Looking at the markets, things are fairly quiet on this Monday morning. However, given the recent bout of volatility, traders are likely to be watching the key lines in the sand on the charts this week.

Turning to our portfolio...

LEADERS Model: Although the leadership has shifted a bit recently, we are content with our current positioning. The LEADERS Model continues to hold Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials. As for performance, we continue to be pleased with the results of the model versus the S&P 500 (the LEADERS is up 8.60% ytd vs. 6.38% for S&P 500).

CORE EXPOSURE Model: The CORE model's exposure was cut in half last week due to the increasing risk factors and is now slightly above the model's recommended level at 25% vs. 20%.

TRADING Model: We currently hold trades in oil, which after a rocky start, looks to be heading in the right direction now, the ...

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My Song Remains The Same

Good Monday morning and welcome back. Since it's Monday, let's get right to our objective review the key market models and indicators. The primary goal of this exercise is to remove any subjective notions about the markets and ...

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Time To Celebrate?

Having been the proprietor of various financial websites for many years, I will admit that headlines about boring, sideways market action doesn't sell a lot of ads on the internet. However, the thinking is that big, bold, declarative headlines ...

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Indicators Not In Their Happy Places

Good Monday morning and welcome back. Hopefully, your computer doesn't make you WannaCry this morning as the global cyber attack has apparently infected more than 200,000 computers so far. Oil, North Korea, and European politics are also in ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.12.17 - Trades Being Added


The Early Take on the Market:
My take on this fine Friday morning is that two economic reports, the ongoing FBI drama (which may or may not turn into something meaningful for traders - so far, it appears not), and the ...

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My Back-of-the-Napkin Take

In yesterday's missive, I began a back-of-the-napkin review of market conditions. For me, the question at hand is whether the bulls will be able to break out of the trading range that has been in place for the past ...

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Is It Really Time to "Sell in May and Go Away?"

From a near-term perspective, it appears the sideways consolidation phase continues for the broad market while the NASDAQ just keeps on keepin' on. And with the Comey firing causing a stir in D.C., it isn't a stretch to ...

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The Current Pattern On Wall Street Is Clear. So...

Once again, the headlines blared something along the lines of "Stock Market Closes at Another New High." However, for the second session in a row - and technically the second consecutive new all-time high for the S&P 500 - one needed a ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.8.17 - LEADERS Continues to Outperform


The Early Take on the Market:
The election in France, Warren Buffett wisdom, and oil are in focus this morning. On the election front, there was no big populist surprise in France on Sunday after Emmanuel Macron ran away with ...

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Leadership Is Clearly Narrowing

Good Monday morning and welcome back. The election in France, Warren Buffett wisdom, and oil are in focus this morning. On the election front, there was no big populist surprise in France on Sunday after Emmanuel Macron ran away with ...

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My Take: Fed Will Stay The Course

Although nobody in the game expected Janet Yellen to make any moves regarding rates yesterday and the changes to the Fed's post-announcement statement required a microscope to identify, this week's meeting of the FOMC was important nonetheless.

After ...

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One of These Doesn't Look Like the Others

As I have written a time or two over the last few years, I'm of the opinion that the much of near-term machinations in the stock market are now mostly noise. Humans making judgement calls about what they see ...

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