Daily Decision Trading Update for 12.14.16


The Early Take on the Market:
It's Fed day again and as such, all eyes will be on Janet Yellen today. The Fed releases its statement at 2:00pm eastern time this afternoon and then Janet Yellen will step to the microphone for a presser shortly thereafter. What traders will be listening for is whether or not the FOMC expects the President-elect's policies to alter their course. Well, that and how many times we can expect to see the Fed raise rates in 2017. The problem is that outside of the much ballyhooed "dot plot" we aren't likely to get answers on either issue from the Fed Chair today. But with the algos ready and armed for the event, it is a safe bet that we will see the usual ridiculous volatility after the announcement. (My personal favorite is the big spike that tends to occur BEFORE the announcement is made, which is usually wrong!) So, stay tuned, this ought to be interesting.

Turning to our portfolio, the CORE exposure model remains in line with the recommended exposure (75% vs. 77.5%). In short, our models are demanding that this market show us something more than a short-term blast before adding exposure.

No change. We are standing pat with our current positions in the LEADERS model for now. Technology is technically ranked #4 this week and Basic Materials is in the top 3. But with the "Trump Trade" sectors very overbought, we are going to continue to hold technology as we expect a mean-reversion move is a distinct possiblity in the FANGs.

In the TRADING model, we are now patiently looking for the next trading opportunity. Remember, this model isn't about "market timing," it's about adding value to the portfolio through low-risk trading opportunities.

Have a great day!



Daily Decision Trading Service
Current Portfolio Summary
The CORE Model

Position

Symbol
% of
Model
% of DDTS
Portfolio
Date
Purchased
Purchase
Price
Current
Rating
ProShares UltraPro S&P UPRO 25.0% 8.33% 12.1.16 $76.93 Hold
The LEADERS Model

Position

Symbol
% of
Model
% of DDTS
Portfolio
Date
Purchased
Purchase
Price
Current
Rating
SPDR Financials ETF XLF 33.3% 11.1% 12.1.16 $22.89 Buy
SPDR Technology ETF XLK 33.4% 11.1% 12.1.16 $46.64 Buy
SPDR Industrials ETF XLI 33.3% 11.1% 12.1.16 $62.82 Buy
The TRADING Model

Position

Symbol
% of
Model
% of DDTS
Portfolio
Date
Purchased
Purchase
Price
Current
Rating
Cash NA 100% 33.3% 12.12.16 $1 Hold



% of Model Explained
The Daily Decision Trading Service (DDTS) is comprised of three models. The number shown in this column represents the percentage of the specific model the position represents.


% of DDTS Portfolio Explained
The Daily Decision Trading Service (DDTS) is comprised of three models. The number shown in this column represents the percentage of the overall portfolio (all 3 models combined) the position represents. (This percentage is shown to illustrate what the holding of the position would be if the DDTS was in a single account.)


Current Rating Explained
This is our rating for the day. The Current Rating tells you what action we would take if we did not currently hold the position. A "Buy" rating means we would be willing to purchase the position at current prices. A "Strong Buy" suggests this would be our first choice to buy. A "Hold" rating indicates we would not make new purchases at current levels. And a "Sell" rating indicates we will likely exit the position in the near-term.


Positions Can Change
Positions often change during the trading session. Remember that we will send a Trade Alert via SMS Text Message and/or Email BEFORE we ever make a move in the models.


About the Daily Decision Trading Service
Our easy-to-follow Daily Decision Trading Service is a modern, pro-level, multi-strategy, multi-manager approach that is made up of three models:

  • The CORE Model
  • The LEADERS Model
  • The TRADING Model


We start with THE CORE Model holdings. This risk-managed position is designed to provide the appropriate level of exposure to the U.S. stock market given the current risk/reward environment and makes up one-third of the overall DDTS portfolio. The goal of the CORE is to give us "the forest" and to stay in tune with the market's big, important moves. And when the bears come to call, the CORE is designed to take defensive measures by moving into capital preservation mode.

Next, we allocate one-third of the overall DDTS portfolio to THE LEADERS Model. This model focuses on the top sectors in the market. Because in short, when technology, biotech, the banks etc., start to heat up, we want to make sure we have an overweighted exposure to the market leaders.

And finally, one-third of the DDTS portfolio consists of THE TRADING Model. This model seeks trading opportunities based on swing-trading and mean-reversion strategies. These are designed to be short-term positions and the primary goal is simple: to add value via an opportunistic approach to trading!

When combined, the three models represent a modern, multi-strategy, risk-managed portfolio.

Cheers!
The Front Range Trading Team


Daily Decision Links:

Daily Decision Resource Page

Interactive Performance Details


NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Posted to Daily Decisions Service on Dec 14, 2016 — 9:12 AM
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