The Daily Decision Trading Update for 2.22.17

*** NEW: UPGRADED LEVERAGE STRATEGY ***
We are pleased to announce that the CORE EXPOSURE model will now utilize a state-of-the-art, leveraged approach when the indicators suggest the market is "in gear" and in a bullish mode. The overall goal is simple: We want to produce higher returns during positive market environments!

How Does It Work? When the CORE EXPOSURE leverage trigger (a series of indicators and market models designed to tell us when the odds favor the bulls and as such, a more aggressive position) is "on," the exposure level for the CORE model will be a percentage of the levered long target: 200% long. Conversely, when the leverage trigger is "off" the exposure will be a percentage of a 100% long position.

Example: If the recommended model exposure is 55% and the leverage trigger is ON, the CORE EXPOSURE model will be 110% long (this will be achieved via a 55% position in a 2X leveraged ETF such as the SSO). If the leverage trigger is OFF, the CORE EXPOSURE model will be 55% long.


The Early Take on the Market:
The Fed is in focus this morning, well, that and the usual earnings parade. As far as Yellen's bunch goes, first, it is important to listen to what each Fedhead has to say in their public appearances. For example, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis Fed did something rather unusual yesterday. On his blog, he detailed why his view on inflation equates to not raising rates. Next, Philly Fed President Patrick Harker said he sees three rate hikes this year. And then San Francisco Fed's John Williams warned that persistently low rates could pose risks to financial system stability. As such, some argue that a March hike is now likely and that the markets aren't ready. The Dow's response? A loss of 7 points as I type. So, in sum, this is one of those bull runs that seems tough to stop. And tough to get into if you are on the sidelines!

Turning to our portfolio...

LEADERS Model: No change. Basic Materials, Financials, Industrials, and Technology remain the top 4 sectors. P.S. We are pleased to report that the LEADERS Model is up +6.8% YTD through Friday's close, which is well above the S&P's gain of +5.6%.

CORE EXPOSURE Model: With the model's leverage trigger currently in the "on" position, our current exposure is below the recommended exposure for the model at 75% vs. 100%. As such, we will be looking for an opportunity to move to the proper exposure level. However, "chasing" here does not "feel" prudent. So, know that we are continuing to wrestle with this dilemma.

TRADING Model: We currently hold two "momentum breakout trades" in the materials sector and the emerging markets and are in search of other opportunities. But again, with markets very overbought, patience is key here.

How To Use the DDTS Models: The DDTS is designed to be a modern, multi-strategy, risk-managed portfolio. Thus, the overall portfolio is a combination of all 3 models. However, we trade the models independently to allow for the use of the models on a standalone basis. If we were to choose just one model to follow, it would be the LEADERS for growth orientation, the CORE for a more conservative, risk managed approach, and the TRADING model for an opportunistic "value-add" approach.

Note: The TRADING model attempts to add value to the portfolio through what are perceived to be low-risk trading opportunities and is not intended to be a "market timing" strategy.



Daily Decision Trading Service
Current Portfolio Summary
The LEADERS Model

Position
Target
Exposure
ETF
Symbol
% of
Model
Date
Purchased
Purchase
Price
Current
Rating
Financials Select Sector SPDR 33.3% XLF 33.3% 12.1.16 $22.89 Buy
Technology Select Sector SPDR 33.4% XLK 33.4% 12.1.16 $46.64 Hold
Industrials Select Sector SPDR 33.3% XLI 33.3% 12.1.16 $62.82 Hold
The CORE EXPOSURE Model

Position
Target
Exposure
ETF
Symbol
% of
Model
Date
Purchased
Purchase
Price
Current
Rating
ProShares UltraPro S&P (3X) 75.0% UPRO 25% 12.1.16 $78.74 Buy
The TRADING Model

Position
Target
Exposure
ETF
Symbol
% of
Model
Date
Purchased
Purchase
Price
Current
Rating
Materials Select Sector SPDR 33.0% XLB 33.0% 1.24.17 $51.95 Hold
iShares Emerging Markets 20.0% EEM 20.0% 1.25.17 $37.43 Buy



Target Exposure Explained
This column is the goal percentage in terms of the overall exposure for the model. This is shown due to the fact that we utilize leveraged ETFs.

% of Model Explained
The number shown in this column represents the percentage of the the model this position represents.

Current Rating Explained
This is our rating for the day. The Current Rating tells you what action we would take if we did not currently hold the position. A "Buy" rating means we would be willing to purchase the position at current prices. A "Strong Buy" suggests this would be our first choice to buy. A "Hold" rating indicates we would not make new purchases at current levels. And a "Sell" rating indicates we will likely exit the position in the near-term.

Positions Can Change
Positions often change during the trading session. Remember that we will send a Trade Alert via SMS Text Message and/or Email BEFORE we ever make a move in the models.

About the Daily Decision Trading Service
Our easy-to-follow Daily Decision Trading Service is a modern, pro-level, multi-strategy, multi-manager approach that is made up of three models:

- The CORE Model
- The LEADERS Model
- The TRADING Model


We start with THE CORE Model holdings. This risk-managed position is designed to provide the appropriate level of exposure to the U.S. stock market given the current risk/reward environment and makes up one-third of the overall DDTS portfolio. The goal of the CORE is to give us "the forest" and to stay in tune with the market's big, important moves. And when the bears come to call, the CORE is designed to take defensive measures by moving into capital preservation mode.

Next, we allocate one-third of the overall DDTS portfolio to THE LEADERS Model. This model focuses on the top sectors in the market. Because in short, when technology, biotech, the banks etc., start to heat up, we want to make sure we have an overweighted exposure to the market leaders.

And finally, one-third of the DDTS portfolio consists of THE TRADING Model. This model seeks trading opportunities based on swing-trading and mean-reversion strategies. These are designed to be short-term positions and the primary goal is simple: to add value via an opportunistic approach to trading!

When combined, the three models represent a modern, multi-strategy, risk-managed portfolio.

Wishing You All The Best in Your Investing Endeavors!

The Front Range Trading Team



Daily Decision Links:
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NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Posted to Daily Decisions Service on Feb 22, 2017 — 10:02 AM
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