LinkedIn and Visa Analysis

Was doing some research today and decided to whip my findings into a report. Enjoy!


Visa (NYSE: V):

Analyst Sentiment:

-Analysts are very bullish on this one, with 28 Buys, 10 Holds, and only 1 Sell

-The most recent 8 ratings were 6 Buys, and 2 Neutrals

-Goldman Sachs has the stock on its Conviction Buy list

Technicals

-Monster 2 year uptrend, is carrying a lot of momentum

-Near term resistance at 162.5 which was an old support level

-Shares are showing a strong Bull Flag, profit taking currently occurring

-Look for a breakout if the stock closes above 162.5

Fundamentals

- The company has had a phenomenal share run predicated on very healthy execution and earnings. Said valuation is incorporating a comparable growth rate in the future. That growth is in no meaningful risk at present, but does face exposure to any transaction volume decrease as the US consumer pared back reliance on credit to meet daily needs. As the economy limps back to lower unemployment and greater overall confidence, the multiyear crisis has taught some secular lessons to the average consumer, namely in managing debt, of which credit card is a major component. At the same time, the commercial sector should serve as support for Visa's outlook at a time when spending, especially that of a discretionary and non-structural nature (read: travel, meals vs. infrastructure costs, for example) looks to ramp up and companies avail themselves of cheap short-term credit. 

- V and peers (V, AXP) are in no immediate danger on non-traditional payment vendors (think Paypal, Western Union, etc) or next-generation tech solutions such as near-field communication (NFC) morphing into captive financing (IE, Apple using their own funds for their prospective NFC implementation. 

- Any interruption on V and peer bullishness may materialize as a result of valuations (P/E just shy of triple digits) getting rich. That said, catalysts to meaningful share price reversal would have to be of a serious nature, such as execution issue or significant litigation/regulatory event. 

- Bottom line: valuation is well-deserved but approaching rich territory. Be mindful of adverse regulatory events. Ex-peer competition not an issue. 

LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD):

Analyst Sentiment:

-Analysts are mixed but leaning bullish on this one, with 16 Buys, 10 Holds, and 0 Sells

-Of the 9 most recent ratings, 8 were Buys, 3 were Holds

-Jefferies and Piper Jaffray, the two most significant firms to rate it in the last month, both have it at a Buy

Technicals

-125 is a previous high, was recently broken when the stock close at 127.45

-New resistance looks to be forming at 127.5

-Watch for a break out as bulls rush to buy when it breaks 127.5

-near term support at 122.5

Fundamentals

- Cyclical and secular strength as unemployment improves and labor force re-expansion kicks in. The company is capturing an increasing share of job search market from traditional space players such as Career Builder and Monster (MWW). On the other hand, the company breathes heavily on the neck of contact relationship management (CRM) players such as Salesforce (CRM). But the company's monetization channels merely start here. LinkedIn follows the mold of social players such as Facebook, with multiple future revenue streams. 

- Flip side is, LinkedIn faces the same short-term handicap from consensus expectations. With GOOG cooling off slightly on the sell-side and FB mixed short-term metrics catalyzing some profit-taking, LNKD could experience a moment of breathing in the market. Another peculiar thing with market sentiment is that the latter can turn on a dime in this name with the slightest perception of a miss in key metrics communicated during the call. Sentiment has a habit of "persistent" over/underestimation of a stock's value, and a case can be made that LNKD is a stock that has been too well-behaved and benefitted at its peer's beatdown in the market - question becomes: is premium relative valuation warranted still?    

-Bottom line: strong case for bullishness, cause for caution on market and peer perception.

Posted to On Demand Ticker Analysis on Feb 06, 2013 — 12:02 PM
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