Debates, Fantasy Land and the Whipping Post

The debate had been over for about a hot minute last night when I started getting the “Stocks to buy for a Clinton Presidency” started to hit my email inbox. Today I got several “Stocks to buy for Trump Presidency” just to even things out. This election-centric stock picking been going on for some time now and I am sure most of you are getting similar emails and messages. Please ignore them. If you rearrange your portfolio based on a guess about which candidate might win and what they might be able to accomplish in their first year you might actually to deserve to lose the money you will almost surely lose. Whoever the next president is they are going to face gridlock. The GOP will hold at least the house so Hillary will face substantial opposition in at least one House of Congress and Trump will have problems no matter who controls Congress. Ideas and plans are just cute stories if you can’t pass them and it looks like that will be the case as we begin 2017.

Web sites devoted to stock picking love these articles. Stocks to buy before Super Bowl Sunday. Stocks to buy for the Daytona 500. Stocks to buy for summer. Stocks to buy for winter. Buy these stocks for back to school. We need to ignore all that click-bait garbage. Buy stocks because they are cheap and have solid fundamentals. Trading your portfolio based on various sporting event and elections is not a robust approach to the markets!

Markets are up marginally over the past week, and there are no stunning new developments that would change my point of view. The mantra remains cash and community banks and it will stay that way until I see much better valuations. We are outperforming ...

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A Dangerous World, the New Normal and Literary Anticipation

It's getting a little scary out there. The US and Russia are flirting with armed conflict in Syria, and there is shooting in Yemen today as the US took out some Yemeni coastal radar sites after they fired missiles ...

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Banks , REITs and Big Storms

It has been an interesting past couple of days with the wildcard games both coming to exciting, albeit heartbreaking conclusions. If the rest of the playoffs have the same quality of play, this year will be something special to watch ...

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Yield Seeking, Adult Toys and Chinese Birth Rates

It has been a busy two weeks around Chez Melvin since I last sent out a Thursday note. Between the trip to Atlanta for the FIG Bank Conference and the weekend venture down to Sanibel for our anniversary, I was ...

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Time Frames, Dangers and Economic Obstacles

I will kick off this week with some highlights from the Delivering Alpha Conference this week. A lot of smart people spoke this year, and they said a lot of things worth considering. I really liked what Marc Lasry of ...

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Recreational Reading, Morons and Semi-Degenerate Gamblers

The week has been a fairly quiet one. The Orioles have played their way back into contention dn are only a game and a half back of the division leading Red Sox. We have a weekend series with the Tigers ...

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Recreational Reading, Morons and Semi-Degenerate Gamblers

The week has been a fairly quiet one. The Orioles have played their way back into contention dn are only a game and a half back of the division leading Red Sox. We have a weekend series with the Tigers ...

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Flying Blind, Undated Call Options and Emmylou

Frank Martin of Martin Capital recently penned a shareholder letter to investors in His Hummingbird Value Fund and as always his thoughts are a worthwhile read. If you have ever read it his book A Decade of Delusions: From Speculative ...

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Interest Rates, Psychology and School days

We had a release of the Fed minutes this week and the meetings are getting a bit livelier. Some members think we need to raise, some want more evidence and some just aren’t that sure what to do. Much ...

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Eggheads, Bankers and Gershwin

The dog days of summer are upon us. Here in Central Florida we are at the point where the dog gives me that “You are a special kind of stupid aren’t you?” look when I try to interest her ...

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Low and Slow, Prudent Buyers and Barefootin

We continue to see a mixed bag in the US economy. For every good number or comment we see a negative development or commentary. For instance Jamie Dimon was pretty upbeat about the US economy recently saying “"What we see ...

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Low and Slow, Prudent Buyers and Barefootin

We continue to see a mixed bag in the US economy. For every good number or comment we see a negative development or commentary. For instance Jamie Dimon was pretty upbeat about the US economy recently saying “"What we see ...

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