Time Frames, Dangers and Economic Obstacles

I will kick off this week with some highlights from the Delivering Alpha Conference this week. A lot of smart people spoke this year, and they said a lot of things worth considering. I really liked what Marc Lasry of Avenue Capital had to say about investing time frames. He recently did away with quarterly redemptions and would only take money with a three-year locks up. When asked why he replied” Because I think it's gotten extremely difficult to invest on a quarterly basis. I think before when you weren't in a zero-rate environment, a zero-interest environment, it was actually easier. But now, you actually need the luxury of time. And because sometimes things will go down, so you need to invest in a sort of two or three year period. Or not have people who get nervous who automatically want their capital. And I didn't think we could generate the returns for people if we did that. So mainly we just went to our investors and said we're going to shift anybody who is here to lock up to about three years. And whoever doesn't want to do that, you can leave, and about 75 percent of the money stayed and 25 percent left.” I preach it all the time but longer is better when it comes to investing and a focus on the short term will hurt a lot more than it could ever help.

There was a lot of concern about the markets expressed by many speakers. Paul Singer of Elliot Management said “"With the rates that currently exist in global bond markets, the term haven applied to G-7 bonds is just plain wrong. These are not safe havens. There is a tremendous amount of risk in owning 10-, 20-, 30-year bonds ...

Read More
Comments

Recreational Reading, Morons and Semi-Degenerate Gamblers

The week has been a fairly quiet one. The Orioles have played their way back into contention dn are only a game and a half back of the division leading Red Sox. We have a weekend series with the Tigers ...

Read More
Comments

Recreational Reading, Morons and Semi-Degenerate Gamblers

The week has been a fairly quiet one. The Orioles have played their way back into contention dn are only a game and a half back of the division leading Red Sox. We have a weekend series with the Tigers ...

Read More
Comments

Flying Blind, Undated Call Options and Emmylou

Frank Martin of Martin Capital recently penned a shareholder letter to investors in His Hummingbird Value Fund and as always his thoughts are a worthwhile read. If you have ever read it his book A Decade of Delusions: From Speculative ...

Read More
Comments

Interest Rates, Psychology and School days

We had a release of the Fed minutes this week and the meetings are getting a bit livelier. Some members think we need to raise, some want more evidence and some just aren’t that sure what to do. Much ...

Read More
Comments

Eggheads, Bankers and Gershwin

The dog days of summer are upon us. Here in Central Florida we are at the point where the dog gives me that “You are a special kind of stupid aren’t you?” look when I try to interest her ...

Read More
Comments

Low and Slow, Prudent Buyers and Barefootin

We continue to see a mixed bag in the US economy. For every good number or comment we see a negative development or commentary. For instance Jamie Dimon was pretty upbeat about the US economy recently saying “"What we see ...

Read More
Comments

Low and Slow, Prudent Buyers and Barefootin

We continue to see a mixed bag in the US economy. For every good number or comment we see a negative development or commentary. For instance Jamie Dimon was pretty upbeat about the US economy recently saying “"What we see ...

Read More
Comments

Bank CEOs: M&A is on the way

Imagine going out to coach the Super Bowl with the other teams playbook in your possession. You will have a huge edge over the other team and your odds of victory will skyrocket because you know exactly what the other ...

Read More
Comments

Bank CEOs: M&A is on the way

Imagine going out to coach the Super Bowl with the other teams playbook in your possession. You will have a huge edge over the other team and your odds of victory will skyrocket because you know exactly what the other ...

Read More
Comments

Private Equity, Banks, Political Parties and Steamed Crabs

There was no Thursday note last week as after several weeks of contractors and noise the wife and I decided we had had enough. The youngest was in Ireland seeing her fathers family so we left my son with the ...

Read More
Comments

Talking Markets and banks with Joel Elconin on Benzinga premarket this morning

https://soundcloud.com/bztv/premarket-prep-for-july-20th-earnings-season-rolling-on?in=bztv/sets/daily-broadcasts#t=1:14:57

starts at 1:14 mark

Read More
Comments