Janet Yellen made it pretty clear that a rate hike is still some months away.

After identifying weak housing, underemployment, soft overseas economies, inflation that is too low and underemployment, it appears a safe bet that a rate hike in June is off the table.

Fed Fund Futures are now discounting an October hike, though I remain in the camp, a camp I started by the way, that the Fed does not raise rates this year.

Indeed, after jumping sharply over the last few weeks, from just above 1.6% to 2.15%, Ten-Year Treasury yields are back below 2%!

I think Janet Yellen is saying the right things. The US economy is, indeed, improving but the global economy is far more fragile. Hence, the fed cannot afford to make a mistake in monetary policy for fear of creating a negative feedback loop in the global economy.

It's not that the Fed would hold off on a rate hike because of weakness overseas, but because weak overseas economies can hurt the US. A rate hike would only exacerbate headwinds that are blowing toward the US economy from abroad.

Bull Market Intact

Hence, with the Fed remaining friendly, stocks still are a safe bet. Of course, stock selection becomes increasingly important as the bull market ages. And certain overseas markets, from Japan to Germany, look more interesting by the day, thanks to easy money abroad, as well.

This is a time to stay the course. As long as the Fed is your friend and the tape stays positive, you still can't fight the Fed or the tape.

Hang on, for now!