Jobs, Jobs

The market is very quiet today and with very good reason. Wall Street is waiting on the government to release its monthly unemployment report which may very well determine when the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, or if they raise rates at all in 2015.

Economists expect the economy created 240,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 5.6%.

However, the risk is for a weaker, rather than a stronger, number.

Now, some of the weakness will be blamed on the inclement weather parts, or really nearly all, of the country has suffered through since late January.

And those weather effects are real. Hard to break ground on new houses in and around Boston with several feet of unmelted snow still on the ground. And it's been been cold all along the Northeast Corridor and even in the South.

But, if the number is weak, even after factoring in weather, it's possible that the rapid pace of job growth, which has averaged 267,000 peer month, could be about to slow down.

If that is the case, June is not the most likely lift-off point for interest rate hikes at the Fed.

September will become more likely, unless other economic numbers come in soft in the weeks and months ahead.

If job growth slows and inflation remains below the Fed target, the Fed may not be able to raise rates at all this year, something I have suggested for quite some time.

There are some signs of life in Europe's economy, but China is slowing further, Japan is not doing much and other factors, like a stronger dollar, could also restrain the Fed.

We'll have to wait and see, but tomorrow's number will be very closely scrutinized and may cause some serious moves in the markets tomorrow ... after a quiet day today.