Yellen's Task Is To...

With summer vacation season winding down and the Fed's symposium getting underway in Jackson Hole, it is safe to say that those traders at their desks this week are waiting to hear what Janet Yellen has to say on Friday before making any major commitments here.

To review, Ms. Yellen is scheduled to speak to the gang of central bankers gathered in the mountains of Wyoming at the end of the week. And while we can't be sure that the Fed Chair is going to discuss her views on when the FOMC will take action again on interest rates, the annual meeting in Jackson Hole has been the spot where changes in monetary policy have been introduced. As such, traders of all shapes and sizes will be hanging on every word Ms. Yellen utters on Friday.

At issue is the potential for the Fed to raise rates in September and/or December. Given that the Fed does not like to make changes to monetary policy in front of a national election, the thinking is that Ms. Yellen has to either take action next month or wait until December to make the first move in 2016.

To be sure, there have been ample opportunities to raise rates so far this year. But each and every time there has been a reason not to. The most recent excuse was the BREXIT vote. With the bears telling anyone who would listen that the UK's decision to leave the EU would undoubtedly trigger the next global crisis, Yellen & Co. decided to stay on the sidelines and err on the side of caution.

However, the FOMC has made it very clear that it remains "data dependent" in terms of when it will take action. And the bottom line is the data would seem to suggest ...

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Stocks Have Stalled and Cycles Point Down, But...

Good morning and welcome back. Since it's Monday, let's get right to our weekly review of the state of the market and our major market indicators/models.

As usual, the first stop is a review of the price/trend of the market. ...

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Trying to Put Things In Perspective

Earlier in the week, I wrote about the importance of identifying one's time frame when trying to win in Ms. Market's game. As I opined, trying to use a long-term approach to succeed from a short-term perspective can cause a ...

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Takeaway From Fed Minutes: It's Time To...

To be sure, one of the key drivers to the global markets continues to be the state of central bank policies. Investors around the world have learned that the old cliche, "Don't fight the Fed," which was originally intended for ...

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Which Game Are You Playing?

When playing the stock market game, it is critical to understand the time-frame you are attempting to "win" at. For example, the big boys with their expensive co-located computers play the game measured in microseconds. Then those who sit by ...

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The Train is Leaving the Station

While the uber-bears continue to pound the table about the risk of the next great disaster in the stock market, I'm reminded that two of the most famous cliches on Wall Street are, "The trend is your friend," and "Don't ...

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The Indicators Are Saying It's Time For...

Good morning and welcome back. Since it's Monday, let's get right to our weekly review of the state of the market and our major market indicators/models.

As usual, the first stop is a review of the price/trend of the market. ...

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The Calendar Versus The Trend

There is no denying that the bulls have been on a roll of late. The S&P 500 has gained 9% since the post-BREXIT low seen on June 27 (the last time the pouting pundits were absolutely, positively sure that the ...

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Sometimes Things Make Sense

Good morning and welcome back. Every once in a great while, the stock market game makes sense. From my seat, this just may be one of those times. You see, Friday's jobs report, which was much, much better than expected, ...

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The Reasons Stocks Are Bottled Up

Depending on when you believe the counting should begin, the S&P 500 has now been moving sideways, in an exceptionally tight range of just 0.7%, for 11-13 days. Analysts tell us that this is the tightest such range since 2013 ...

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Crude's Move Becoming Rude Again

It's always something with this market, isn't it? Just about the time you assume that the "earnings recession" is ending and that investors are looking forward to better days, something always seems to crop up that causes the worries to ...

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Waiting on the Fed

The recent price action in the stock market reminds us that the dog days of summer are upon us. A time when most traders are dealing with family vacations and/or focusing on keeping that little white ball in the short ...

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